CRITICS — Critical Transitions in Complex Systems

Results in brief

Critical Transitions in Complex Systems

The ITN Critical Transition in Complex Systems (CRITICS) addresses the problem of characterising and predicting the occurrence of sudden changes of behaviour in the dynamics of complex systems in nature, technology and society. Due to increased computer power and capacity for data management, there is a rapidly increasing need to understand and control complex systems. The traditional mathematical theory fails to address these novel challenges in complex systems motivated by ecology, climate science, medicine, technology and financial markets. These challenges involve time-dependent systems, random systems, networks and multiscale systems. Changes in behaviour are known as bifurcations in the context of very low-dimensional systems (nonlinear dynamics), and as phase transitions in very large systems (equilibrium statistical mechanics). The corresponding phenomena in complex systems are often called critical transitions. The main scientific objective of this project is to develop the bifurcation theory for critical transitions, beyond the classical context, and use this theory to design observables that can be used as early-warning signals. There is empirical evidence for the existence of early-warning signals, but the mathematical foundation of such observations is largely lacking. The understanding of the nature of critical transitions and their early-warning signals is crucial as a basis for decision-making in many branches of science and technology. The ITN CRITICS has established a world-leading European research consortium to address the problem of early-warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems in a variety of contexts, providing a unique multidisciplinary training environment for fifteen ESRs. It is expected to have a decisive and lasting impact on the field, well beyond the initial duration of the programme.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union

Project objective

Complex systems research has been on the forefront of scientific priorities of many national research councils and the EUfor more than a decade. Many very interesting phenomena have been identified and explored, but the development of theunderpinning mathematical theory has been lagging behind. The proposed training network builds on an emergingdevelopment in applied mathematics to provide proper mathematical theory for the existence of early-warning signals forsudden changes in dynamical behaviour, so-called critical transitions, which have been reported by applied scientists invarious contexts.Practical implications for the existence of such early-warning signals are far reaching, since these would enable thedevelopment of better control strategies to avoid or diminish the effect of catastrophes. Topical examples include epilepticseizures, stock market collapses, earthquakes, and climate.Attending to the mathematical underpinning for critical transitions in complex systems, it is apparent that the relevantmathematical discipline of bifurcation theory, that has been developed to great acclaim and use for primarily low-dimensionaldeterministic autonomous (i.e. intrinsically time-independent) dynamical systems, and (in the context of phase transitions)for material science, does not apply without nontrivial modification to most of the complex systems contexts.The training network is a response to the needs of applied scientists (including many in the private sector) for a propermathematical underpinning of early-warning signals. After their training, the trained researchers will be at the very forefrontof this rapidly developing field, with many practical skills and crucial theoretical insights into the possibilities (and impossibilities) of early-warning signals for critical transitions in a wide range of contexts.

Original text from CORDIS.

Participants

IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE · LondonCoordinatorUnited Kingdom
FRIEDRICH-SCHILLER-UNIVERSITÄT JENA · JENAGermany
FUNDACION CIDAUT · ValladolidSpain
KOBENHAVNS UNIVERSITET · KOBENHAVNDenmark
TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAET DRESDEN · DresdenGermany
THE UNIVERSITY OF EXETER · ExeterUnited Kingdom
UNIVERSIDAD DE VALLADOLID · VALLADOLIDSpain
UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT · UtrechtNetherlands
UNIVERSITY COLLEGE CORK - NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND, CORK · CorkIreland
WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY · WageningenNetherlands

CRITICS · Critical Transitions in Complex Systems

Results in brief

Critical Transitions in Complex Systems

Project objective

Participants

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