IPBMNES · Integrated Pedestrian Behavior Modeling under Normal and Evacuation Situations
Horizon 2020 — Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
- Duration
- 2017-01-01 → 2018-12-31
- EU contribution
- €171,461
- Participants
- 1
- Scheme
- MSCA-IF-EF-ST
Lines connect the coordinator with its partners.
Results in brief
Integrated Pedestrian Behavior Modeling under Normal and Evacuation Situations
In the context of pedestrian behavior, the pedestrian movements are more complex and chaotic compared to vehicular flows mainly because they are not limited to the “lanes”. Moreover, in pedestrian dynamics, collective dynamics will be formed from individual human non-linear interactions. For example, a crowd in normal situations forms self-organized patterns such as lane formation, oscillatory flows at bottlenecks, and stripe formation in intersecting flows. However, under extreme conditions, the coordination will fail leading to new phenomena such as “freezing-by-heating”, “faster-is-slower”, and crowd turbulence. Table 1 shows a list of the major crowd related disasters in Europe and all over the world. The latest crowd disorder in Europe occurred on July 24, 2010 at the “Loveparade”, an electronic dance music festival in Duisburg, Germany. There 21 people died and more than 500 were injured in a stampede. Hence, there is a need for greater understanding of characteristics and behavior pattern for pedestrian in normal and evacuation process. The following are the objectives of the proposal: 1) To develop mathematical models to understand the pedestrian crowd dynamics in mass gathering events in order to replicate the behaviour and pattern of crowd in real world conditions 2) To calibrate the model parameters using detailed pedestrian trajectory data 3) To develop pedestrian simulation software to test and design different control and management strategies and propose efficient crowd management measures during normal and evacuation situations
Data: CORDIS, © European Union
Project objective
In order to understand the nature of complex and collective dynamics of pedestrians during normal and evacuation situations, mathematical models and simulation tools are essential. Compared to vehicular flows, pedestrian movements show a more complex behavior, mainly because they are essentially two-dimensional and not limited to specific lanes. Moreover, in pedestrian dynamics, collective dynamics will be formed from individual human nonlinear interactions. Specifically, pedestrian behavior is the result of a series of interdependent decisions which are based on a specific plan. The plan is a latent (unobserved) variable resulting in a series of (observed) actions. However, in state-of-the-art pedestrian flow models, the latent plans and some observed actions are ignored. When it is implemented in simulation software, this leads to an unrealistic representation of individual pedestrian movements and collective crowd dynamics. In order to overcome this issue, a framework for integrated pedestrian behavior modeling based on the concepts of a short-term plan and action, is proposed. This framework integrates the following sub-models: Target Destination Choice Model, Pedestrian Route Choice Model, Pedestrian Pace State Model, and a Pedestrian Movement Model. It captures pedestrians' planning capabilities and interdependent decisions. The parameters of all the components of the framework are estimated jointly by observed pedestrian trajectories using maximum-likelihood theory. Finally, the above behavioral models will be incorporated in the traffic simulator, MovSim (Multi-model open-source vehicular-traffic Simulator developed by Technical University Dresden -TUD) to simulate the normal and evacuation pedestrian environment. This tool will be useful to develop guidelines for local authorities and organizers of mass events in larger cities of Europe and for designing the pedestrian facilities.
Original text from CORDIS.
Participants
- TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAET DRESDEN · DresdenCoordinatorGermany
Links
- View on CORDIS
- DOI: 10.3030/656349
- https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/projects/success-stories/all/keeping-crowds-safe-when-danger-strikes
Data: CORDIS, © European Union