AspSync · Unravelling mechanisms controlling asperities synchronization and triggering mega-earthquakes: insights from analog experiments and subduction zone earthquake statistics
Horizon 2020 — Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
- Duration
- 2016-01-01 → 2017-12-31
- EU contribution
- €185,076
- Participants
- 1
- Scheme
- MSCA-IF-EF-ST
Lines connect the coordinator with its partners.
Results in brief
Unravelling mechanisms controlling asperities synchronization and triggering mega-earthquakes: insights from analog experiments and subduction zone earthquake statistics
AspSync focused on one of the most dangerous geo-hazard: subduction megathrust earthquakes. The short instrumental seismic record and the multi-scale, multi-parameter influence complicate our understanding of the origin and loci where those earthquakes may occur in the future. A better understanding of the origins of subduction megathrust earthquakes is of primary importance for both scientific and societal reasons. AspSync aimed at improving our knowledge of subduction megathrust earthquakes using a multidisciplinary approach that featured laboratory experiments as well as statistical analysis of natural subduction zones seismicity. AspSync investigated the following scientific problems: A. Asperities Synchronization: According to the “Asperity Model”, earthquakes magnitude depends on the size and spatial distribution of asperities. When two or more neighboring asperities fail during the same earthquake, the rupture area becomes bigger and give rise to a larger magnitude event. Understanding the physical conditions that lead to synchronization is debated and critical for seismic hazard assessment. B. Multi-parameter influence on subduction megathrust earthquakes: Subduction zones are complex systems where multiple, intercorrelated geodynamic parameters (e.g., subduction velocity) affect the seismicity simultaneously. Understanding which and how such parameters tune megathrusts seismicity would be pivotal for hazard assessment, because it will help identifying which subduction zone is prone for hosting mega-earthquakes.
Data: CORDIS, © European Union
Project objective
Subduction mega-earthquakes are among the most destructive events on Earth. When affecting very densely populated areas these earthquakes may cause extensive human losses and severe damages, as for the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki event (Japan). According to the ‘asperity model’, a mega-earthquake may occur when regions of the fault that are potentially seismic (i.e., asperities) interact and synchronize failing together. But understanding the physical conditions that are responsible for such synchronization still remains enigmatic. AspSync proposes to tackle this problem using a multidisciplinary approach that combines analog modelling with geodynamics and statistics.AspSync proposes to develop a 3D mechanical prototype that reproduces the convergent margin features, including interplate earthquakes. This model will feature laterally (i.e., in trench parallel direction) heterogeneous frictional behavior mimicking the asperities that characterize the plate interface. Tuning the physical and frictional properties of asperities, AspSync will systematically test the role of their dimensions, distance, geometry and strength in the synchronization process, unlocking the possibility to infer the physical conditions that lead to the triggering of mega-earthquakes.AspSync will then link the experimental results with ‘real Earth conditions’, studying the feedbacks between geodynamical properties of convergent margins and interplate seismicity aiming to identify the physical conditions that promote mega-earthquakes triggering. AspSync will update and analyze the existing database of global physical properties of subduction zones and interplate seismicity developed at UM2 applying robust statistics (e.g., multi-parametric pattern recognition analysis; analysis of temporal series) to quantitatively estimate cause-effect relationships between geodynamical and seismic parameters.
Original text from CORDIS.
Participants
- UNIVERSITE DE MONTPELLIER · MontpellierCoordinatorFrance
Links
- View on CORDIS
- DOI: 10.3030/658034
- http://www.aspsync.wordpress.com
- https://arquivo.pt/wayback/20201230030109/https://aspsync.wordpress.com/
Data: CORDIS, © European Union