FUTURESYRIA · Mapping an uncertain future: Social and spatial change in conflicting Syria

Mapping an uncertain future: Social and spatial change in conflicting Syria

This research project aimed at understanding the spatial and social dynamics of the Syrian conflict. Held at the most important research centre in forced migration (the Refugee Studies Centre of the University of Oxford), It has however been mostly concerned with the transformations of the Syrian society over the crisis that has engulfed this country since 2011. It is a project in the field of Human Geography, situated more generally within the social sciences, and which borrows analytical tools from political economy, sociology and anthropology. It purports to map social, political and economic displacement within Syria, which also has consequences for the territories beyond its borders. The territorial fragmentation that Syria is currently undergoing — partly a consequence of the repression and warfare tactics of the Asad regime — has profound and long-term effects on Syrian society. Further, more than half of the Syrian population has been displaced, having either taken shelter outside Syria (refugees, some registered, some not) or within Syria (Internally Displaced People-IDPs). The extent of destructions is high, casting a doubt as to the ways in which people can ever ‘return’, if at all. Syria faces therefore massive changes both in its social outlook and in its territorial fabric, in the short-term as well as in the foreseeable future. Structural changes and challenges may affect the neighbouring countries as well, as they bear the weight of sheltering the Syrian refugees and find that their borders are being undermined. Departing from media analyses of the conflict in terms of struggle between regional powers, the aim of this research was hence to explore the territorial and ‘social’ changes that have taken place in Syria since 2011. The investigation has focused on local contexts and has lead to a mapping of the interrelated movements of people (IDPs and refugees), of the logic and impacts of destructions, and of the local dynamics of warfare. I have focused on exploring four main aspects of the transformations of Syria: First, the forced displacement of the Syrian population within the country-an aspect that was not covered by academic research. I also explored some aspects of its external forced resettlement, mostly in Lebanon, where I conducted most of my fieldwork. Second, I researched the transformations of the territory of the nation-state and the future of the Syrian authoritarian state, in particular through an extensive enquiry on the borders of Syria, where local, regional and international dynamics play out. Third, I developed a field of enquiry related to the transformation of the economy in the war, and the emergence of economies of war. Finally, I have pursued my former work on the destruction of the material environment in Syria, and in particular of the urban fabric of the country. The research allowed the gathering of an exceptional amount of data and information, based on a close following of the events on the ground, and on interactions with people affected by, and/or involved in these events.The research programme has build an original database, based on collection of data through primary as well as secondary sources : (remote) interviews with people inside Syria, refugees outside the country, humanitarian workers, political and economic actors in neighbouring countries; information collected through social networks; open data such as newspapers, reports from NGOs and from International organisations; analysis of satellite images.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union