EcoFunc4Cast · Forecasting Change in Vegetation Dependant Ecosystem Functions.
Horizon 2020 — Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
- Duration
- 2017-04-01 → 2019-03-31
- EU contribution
- €200,195
- Participants
- 1
- Scheme
- MSCA-IF-EF-ST
Lines connect the coordinator with its partners.
Results in brief
Forecasting Change in Vegetation Dependant Ecosystem Functions.
Realizing the potential threat of climate change on ecosystem functioning requires a capability to make reliable forecasts of species range shifts in response to environmental change . For this reason, species distribution modelling (SDM) has received much attention . Static SDMs, also referred to as ‘niche based’ models relate field observations to environmental predictor variables. They are widely used among ecologists with relative success; nevertheless ‘ecological realism’ is not always well considered . Key theoretical limitations are accountable: (1) observed species patterns are assumed to be in equilibrium with the environment, and (2) several processes crucial to species range shifts, notably propagule dispersal , biotic interactions and establishment probability are disregarded, often adopting an ‘all or nothing’ model parameter for dispersal capability. Evaluating the effects of species range shifts on European vegetation-related ecosystem functions is of upmost importance for improving our understandings of climate change impacts upon European societies. However, this can only be achieved through accurate species range forecasts, for which the ‘ecological realism’ of species’ response models to climate must be improved. This can be achieved through use of hybrid mechanistic models; models that consider both standard niche-based habitat suitability projections and mechanistic simulations of local demography and propagule dispersal. This project’s overall objective was to address exactly this challenge: develop a novel mechanistic modelling framework in which the ecological realism of forecast models can be improved.
Data: CORDIS, © European Union
Project objective
Patterns observed among twenty first century climate change imply a warmer and wetter climatic environment in the near to mid-term (50-150 years). Changes in climate results in changes in vegetation patterns as plant species shift there respective range. Subsequently, large-scale shifts in vegetation composition in response to climate change will impact upon vegetation dependent ecosystem functioning (structure and dynamics) and in-turn on the ecosystem services on which human societies depend. Understanding therefore how ecosystem functions respond to changing climate is extremely relevant for the development and implementation of successful European policy on climate change mitigation. This project will develop novel hybrid species distribution models (SDM) at national and European scales. The models will circumvent several limitations renowned with SDMs, through incorporating mechanistic simulations of species dispersal and establishment probabilities among a changing climate. Furthermore, these hybrid models will be validated, not by using the same spatial-temporal data but using an independent fine-scale temporal data-set. This unique and independent data originates from experimental field studies investigating impacts of warming and precipitation on Norwegian alpine vegetation. The model parametrization and validation phase of this project will result in a modeling framework that can be used to accurately forecast species range patterns and in-turn evaluate climate change impacts on ecosystems functions at the European-wide scale. .
Original text from CORDIS.
Participants
- AARHUS UNIVERSITET · Aarhus CCoordinatorDenmark
Links
Data: CORDIS, © European Union