QDM · Quantum Decision Making
Horizon 2020 — Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
- Duration
- 2016-10-01 → 2018-10-31
- EU contribution
- €195,455
- Participants
- 1
- Scheme
- MSCA-IF
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Results in brief
Quantum Decision Making
The objectives concerned how people update their beliefs given new information and, relatedly, the process of rumination/ ambivalence towards reaching a ‘complex’ decision (i.e., a decision for which there is no clear answer and which is based on several pieces of information). Together with collecting relevant human experimental results, we also aimed to develop models based on quantum probability theory (QPT). We call QPT the rules for probability assignment from quantum mechanics, without the physics. QPT is in principle applicable in any area where there is a need to formalize uncertainty. In psychology, quantum-like cognitive models have been fruitfully employed, especially in situations that challenge the predominant descriptive (and normative) framework of classical probability theory (CPT). Such situations have been extremely influential in the development of our understanding of human decision making (e.g., they have led to two Nobel prizes, to Kahneman and Thaler). Regarding the first major project objective, belief updating, there is a striking difference between belief updating based on CPT and QPT. With the former, belief updating is constrained by Bayes law, so that initially unlikely hypotheses are unlikely to be supported too much, regardless of the evidence that comes to light. With the latter, belief updating can involve large jumps from prior to posterior beliefs. Does human decision making sometimes involve such large jumps? Regarding the second major project objective, we often have an intuitive sense of rumination, such that we go back and forth the possible alternatives before reaching a decision. How can we empirically measure such a process and how can we model it?
Data: CORDIS, © European Union
Project objective
This proposal concerns the formal and descriptive foundations of belief updating (BU) in human decision making. What are the principles that guide change in beliefs, as evidence accumulates? The dominant approach in decision making has been classical, Bayesian probability theory (CPT). Yet persistent discrepancies between CPT prescription and human behaviour challenge this dominance. Are there analogous findings in BU? If yes, if CPT cannot provide a satisfactory account of BU, what is a suitable alternative formal framework? We will carefully consider surprising empirical tests of the adequacy of CPT in belief updating, inspired by quantum probability theory (QPT). The recently emerging QPT decision models have been revolutionarizing insight about the formal principles guiding decision making. Prediction insights for BU call for more advanced techniques in QPT, such as open-system dynamics. The Experienced Researcher(ER) has an outstanding track record in quantum foundations and is seeking a career transition to cognitive psychology. The Supervisor is one of the pioneers of the application of QPT in cognitive psychology. This highly inter-disciplinary, innovative proposal will converge QPT technical expertise and deep, unaddressed questions in decision making. CITY is already one of the internationally leading centres for cognitive research based on QPT methods, with experts spanning computer science, economics, physics and cognitive psychology. This is the perfect environment to enable the ER to apply her expertise, flourish, and mature into one of the leading figures in this emerging research area. Finally, formalizing the principles of BU is a key challenge not only for cognitive psychology, but any area where there is a need for rigorous models of belief change, as a result of accumulating evidence (e.g., artificial intelligence). This proposal will be a major step towards a fully comprehensive, technically sophisticated, and empirically accurate theory.
Original text from CORDIS.
Participants
- CITY ST GEORGES UNIVERSITY OF LONDON · LONDONCoordinatorUnited Kingdom
Links
Data: CORDIS, © European Union