Spatialec · Developing methods to model local area temporal domestic electricity demand

Developing methods to model local area temporal domestic electricity demand

Driven by the need to de-carbonise energy supplies, to reduce overall demand, to shift demand away from systemic or critical peaks and to cope with localised, time-specific and/or intermittent generation, the emerging view of Europe’s (green) smart grid future places substantial emphasis on demand-side response (DR) as a key component of a sustainable electricity system. There is a clear need to develop a modeling framework which can allow regulators, policy researchers and commercial analysts to understand how particular combinations of scenarios might affect electricity infrastructures at varying levels of geographical scale and at different times of the day, week and year. This research responded to this need by developing a microsimulation based approach to demand modeling at the household level and integrates this with known ‘spatialisation’ approaches to develop area level temporal demand profiles. The outcome is a model that can produce not only a local area temporal demand (and potential response) ‘map’ under a range of scenarios but also indicators of the range of responses likely as input to network operator infrastructure management analysis and/or local power generation planning decisions. The work applied the University of Otago’s ‘Energy Cultures’ and ‘GREEN Grid’ research to develop local (neighbourhood) level electricity demand models. The results have been used to analyse the local demand implications of a range of NZ demand response scenarios such as EV uptake, energy efficient lighting or increased heat pump use. In the return phase the approach has been applied to similar data derived from the ‘SAVE’ Low Carbon Network Fund project to produce a generally applicable model for the South East of England. This model has been validated using area level annual demand data and substation monitoring data before being used to model the local area effects of a number of demand response interventions. The work has been disseminated widely with a view to ensuring exploitation through relevant infrastructure and demand response stakeholders.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union