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H2020Individual fellowship2018–2020

CLIM4CROP · Climate monitoring and seasonal forecast for global crop production

Horizon 2020 — Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Duration
2018-09-09 → 2020-11-08
EU contribution
€170,122
Participants
1
Scheme
MSCA-IF

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Results in brief

Climate monitoring and seasonal forecast for global crop production

The occurrence of and changes in climatic extremes constitute a great concern to food security. Estimating the expected crop yield variability a few months in advance would allow reducing socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven impacts on agriculture is still in its infancy. The overall scientific goal of the project entitled “Climate monitoring and seasonal forecast for global crop production” (CLIM4CROP project H2020-MSCA-IF-2016-740073) was to explore how best to exploit seasonal forecasts for crop management decision making on a global scale making use of the latest advances in climate and crop sciences. With this project, we have improved the knowledge on the limits in global datasets of climate observations relevant to agriculture and developed innovative statistical models to analyse the climate-driven impact on crops. In addition, the implementation of the project along with the advanced training gained at BSC have allowed the MSCA fellow Dr. Marco Turco to reach one of the most important milestones in his career: i.e., scientific independence. Indeed, the project PREDFIRE proposed by the fellow has been granted from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, that allows the fellow to become an autonomous scientist. The MSCA fellowship has undoubtedly impacted in attaining this job position.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union

Project objective

When provided in a climate-services context, seasonal climate forecasts can enable a more effective adaptation to climate variability and change, offering an under-exploited opportunity to minimise the agricultural impacts of adverse climate conditions. However, the development of seasonal prediction systems of climate-driven impacts on agriculture is still largely in the early stages, especially on a global scale. CLIM4CROP is designed as a multidisciplinary project aimed at exploring how to best exploit seasonal forecasts for crop management decision making on a global scale. This goal will be achieved through three specific supporting objectives: a) characterising the uncertainties in global datasets of climate observations covering the last three decades and providing data in near-real time; b) understanding the role of climate as underlying mechanisms driving crop yields, and thereby developing statistical models linking climate and yields; c) exploring the seasonal predictability of crop yields with the above-mentioned developed models and implementing a model suite operationally using the data available in near-real time. These objectives will be addressed by making use of the latest advances in climate information, including the most complete and up-to-date sets of seasonal forecast systems. The expected outcomes of this project are an improved understanding of the interaction between climate and crop yields, and new insights allowing more efficient crop management. This could prove useful to policy-makers and commercial entities in their decision-making processes. To this end, the transfer of knowledge to impact users is envisaged.

Original text from CORDIS.

Participants

  • BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACION · BARCELONACoordinatorSpain

Links

Data: CORDIS, © European Union