IceDynamO · The dynamics of sea ice variability – role of the oceans
Horizon 2020 — Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
- Duration
- 2018-05-01 → 2021-03-29
- EU contribution
- €212,195
- Participants
- 1
- Scheme
- MSCA-IF-EF-CAR
Lines connect the coordinator with its partners.
Results in brief
The dynamics of sea ice variability – role of the oceans
For understanding the recent global warming, it is crucial to understand the climate changes of the past. The climate changed drastically numerous times during the history of Earth; there has been several degrees higher as well as lower average temperatures globally. If we manage to understand the underlying forcing mechanisms of these past changes and the links between them, it will be easier to evaluate to what extent the on-going trend is related to natural variations and how much is due to human activity. The Arctic region plays a particularly important role in the (paleo)climate research. It is one of the most sensitive areas with respect to the on-going global warming, and it is experiencing a warming trend that is greater than in any other region of the world. The summer sea-ice cover in the Arctic has decreased drastically in the last decades, and according to model simulations the area may become seasonally ice-free as early as around 2040–2050. Despite the extreme societal and environmental relevance of these recent changes in Arctic climate, our understanding of natural water mass and sea-ice variability and their response to external natural and human-induced forcing is scarce. The overall objective of this project was therefore to reconstruct the variability of oceanic and sea-ice conditions on the Northeast Greenland shelf during the Holocene (our present interglacial, the last 11,700 years) and investigate their connection to the Greenland ice-sheet dynamics, ocean circulation and global climate.
Data: CORDIS, © European Union
Project objective
Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly, and according to model simulations, the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free as early as around 2040. As sea ice is a critical component of the Earth system, for the prediction of future climatic processes and related environmental changes, it is crucial to forecast its evolution. However, despite the extreme societal and environmental relevance, our understanding of natural sea-ice variability and its response to external natural and human-induced forcing is associated with significant uncertainties. Consequently, state-of-the-art climate models still show a very large spread in the prediction of climate responses for the next century, especially at high latitudes. The insufficient knowledge about natural sea-ice states makes it essential to develop high-resolution sea-ice reconstructions extending back in time beyond the instrumental and satellite era. With this project I will thus improve our basic understanding of the processes determining Arctic sea-ice cover and variability by establishing multidecadal to millennial-scale time series of sea ice and general oceanic conditions on the North East Greenland shelf during the Holocene, with primary focus on the last few millenia. I will develop a high-resolution, multi-proxy reconstruction and link it to the Greenland ice-sheet dynamics, ocean circulation and global climate. I will define the pre-industrial baseline of Greenland sea-ice cover and test the link between sea ice and natural and human-induced climate forcings. Results from this project will have important implications not just for the community of palaeo-scientists but will provide crucial research-data for modellers in order to improve predictive climate models. Such improved models are critical for a better prediction of the fate of Arctic sea ice in a warmer word, and are also needed for society to adapt to a changing environment.
Original text from CORDIS.
Participants
- AARHUS UNIVERSITET · Aarhus CCoordinatorDenmark
Links
- View on CORDIS
- DOI: 10.3030/792639
- https://geo.au.dk/en/research/research-centres/paleoceanography-and-paleoclimate-group/research/teodora-pados-the-dynamics-of-sea-ice-variability-role-of-the-oceans/
Data: CORDIS, © European Union