OSeaIce · Two-way interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice
Horizon 2020 — Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
- Duration
- 2019-11-01 → 2020-10-31
- EU contribution
- €101,926
- Participants
- 1
- Scheme
- MSCA-IF-EF-SE
Lines connect the coordinator with its partners.
Results in brief
Two-way interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice
The Arctic sea-ice area has decreased by about 2 million km² over the last 40 years, mainly due to the current anthropogenic global warming. Based on current observations and climate model projections, the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by the middle of this century. The fast rate of melting from Arctic sea ice could lead to important adverse impacts on the weather and climate, biosphere and society. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to understand the specific processes behind the Arctic sea-ice loss. One of these processes is the melting of Arctic sea ice via ocean heat transport, both from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The objectives of our project were: 1) To improve the understanding of the impact of ocean heat transport on Arctic sea-ice melt. 2) To quantify the impact of Arctic sea-ice reduction on the large-scale oceanic circulation and ocean heat transport. 3) To assess the effect of increased model resolution on the interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice. 4) To reduce the uncertainties in future sea-ice projections. Our main conclusions related to these four objectives are: 1) Through sensitivity experiments with the EC-Earth3 global climate model, we showed that the ocean heat transport strongly affects Arctic sea ice. We also showed that not only the Atlantic Ocean but also the Pacific Ocean is a major driver of Arctic sea-ice melt. 2) The Atlantic ocean heat transport slightly increases north of 65°N and decreases south of 65°N following a drastic Arctic sea-ice loss simulated by EC-Earth3. 3) The relative decreases in Arctic sea-ice area and volume as a response to an increase in ocean heat transport do not depend on the model resolution in EC-Earth3. 4) Selecting the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models closest to observations and reanalysis in terms of the present Arctic sea-ice area / volume and Atlantic / Pacific ocean heat transport provides a stronger sea-ice reduction through the 21st century compared to the CMIP6 multi-model mean without model selection.
Data: CORDIS, © European Union
Project objective
Sea ice in the Arctic region is retreating at fast pace with potential impacts on the weather and climate at mid and high latitudes, as well as the biosphere and society. Sea-ice loss is driven by anthropogenic global warming, atmospheric circulation changes, climate feedbacks, and ocean heat transport. To date, no clear consensus regarding the detailed impact of the latter (ocean heat transport) on Arctic sea ice exists. Conversely, the changing sea ice also affects ocean heat transport, but this effect is much less studied. Therefore, this action proposes to explore the two-way interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice. To this end, we will use a state-of-the-art global climate model (EC-Earth) and perform different sensitivity experiments to gain insights into these important interactions. Based on the results from these experiments, we will refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. Comparison to observations will be carried out to ensure that model simulations are realistic. We will also assess the impact of model spatial resolution on the relationships between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice, as an extension of the work performed within the EU PRIMAVERA project (PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment). This action will allow to provide more reliable and robust information on regional Arctic sea-ice present and future changes to users and stakeholders. Finally, this project is highly interdisciplinary as it combines three key components of the climate system (i.e. the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere), and will be done in collaboration with the NordForsk ARCPATH project (Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable Societies), which focuses on improving Arctic climate predictions and better understanding socio-economic impacts of Arctic changes.
Original text from CORDIS.
Participants
- SVERIGES METEOROLOGISKA OCH HYDROLOGISKA INSTITUT · NORRKOEPINGCoordinatorSweden
Links
Data: CORDIS, © European Union