DEMOcrises · Demographic consequences of humanitarian crises in Latin America

Demographic consequences of humanitarian crises in Latin America

Latin American countries are vulnerable to a range of natural hazards; to political and economic crises; and to armed conflicts. Since 1994, the European Commission has provided over €1 billion in assistance to Latin American countries facing humanitarian crisis. However, little is known about the demographic impacts of those crises and the humanitarian aid outreach. The reason could be attributable to official data lacks good quality or it is interrupted, and most specialized demographic studies remains within national state boundaries ignoring the feedback effects among neighboring nations. Inadequate estimates of a crisis’s impact have implications on the attention that a humanitarian crisis receives – in terms of both advocacy and resource allocation, as policy makers need to be aware of the sensitivity of changes in accurate figures and rates. The main objective of this project is to produce accurate demographic estimates that enlighten our understanding of the complex dimensions of a humanitarian crisis in Latin America, and to do so using Venezuela as an example. Venezuela is currently undergoing a profound social and economic crisis with far-reaching consequences for its demographic trends. As migration became the only survival strategy possible for most Venezuelans, the crisis has been spilling over the continent, leaving no country in Latin America unaffected. Studies on the demographic consequences of a catastrophe usually refer to events in the distance past, in this regard; the main innovations of this project is to produce accurate updated estimates for keeping track of the demographic consequence of an ongoing crisis. To achieve this, I will make advances in linking demography, epidemiology, political science, and conflict sociology, with humanitarian emergency preparedness by: (1) applying advanced statistical techniques and demographic (in)direct methods to ensure high-quality and updated demographic estimates of an ongoing crisis; (2) forecasting demographic responses to the crisis in order to shed light on public policy design and on developing more effective humanitarian aid preparedness plans in the region; and (3) using a cross-country comparison and regional perspective to account for the feedback effects among neighboring nations when analyzing the demographic

Data: CORDIS, © European Union