EIDOS-IF-2019 · EIDOS of a city: simulating the collapse and resilience of ancient Eastern Mediterranean urban environments via agent-based modelling

EIDOS of a city: simulating the collapse and resilience of ancient Eastern Mediterranean urban environments via agent-based modelling

The project "EIDOS of a city: simulating the collapse and resilience of ancient Eastern Mediterranean urban environments via agent-based modeling" delves into the enduring question of what factors allowed some cities to thrive for millennia while others collapsed after mere centuries. The Eastern Mediterranean, home to some of the world's oldest civilizations and a rich history of urban development, has consistently intrigued scholars. Yet, our understanding of the multifaceted factors influencing urban decline, socio-economic collapse, and urban resilience in this region remains incomplete. This project stemmed from the pressing need to address these knowledge gaps, particularly the mystery surrounding the divergent fates of ancient cities in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the initial phase, we embarked on an extensive endeavor to collect and analyze copious datasets. The primary aim of EIDOS was to unravel the broader patterns of settlement persistence across the Eastern Mediterranean, with a specific focus on Cyprus and the northern/southern Levant regions. Collaboration with international projects in Europe and North America enabled us to compile a comprehensive dataset encompassing 30,000 sites in the northern/southern Levant. Notably, due to the absence of an equivalent dataset for Cyprus, the project's inaugural six months were dedicated to painstakingly creating a Cypriot dataset. This meticulous effort resulted in the digitization of 1,600 sites spanning from the Neolithic to the Ottoman period, culminating in the establishment of the first fully accessible geo-database of Cypriot settlements. The second phase of EIDOS was dedicated to harnessing the power of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to dissect and evaluate the variables contributing specifically to shifts in settlement patterns. ABM, a versatile simulation technique, empowers researchers to construct models from the ground up, facilitating the exploration of diverse theories and hypotheses. Through the manipulation of model parameters, such as annual rainfall and crop yields, we systematically identified the most influential variables. This iterative process culminated in the identification of potential mechanisms influencing urban decline or resilience. Using the Late Bronze Age in Cyprus as a focal point, we developed an agent-based model to scrutinize the extent to which copper production and export influenced the transformation of settlement patterns during this era. The simulation outcomes underwent rigorous testing and validation against the archaeological record, enabling us to pinpoint the factors with the greatest impact on the model. These findings, aligned with known settlement distribution patterns, have significantly advanced our understanding of the intricate dynamics at play within Eastern Mediterranean urban systems. Importantly, this research has unveiled mechanisms beyond environmental factors that contributed to historical urban transformations within the region.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union