EDIPI — european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Results in brief

european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Extreme weather events exact a high socio-economic toll. A robust scientific understanding of extreme weather events is a key first step to reducing their impacts. EDIPI has focussed on advancing our understanding of the dynamics, predictability and impacts of temperature, precipitation (including drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. EDIPI's key scientific objectives are: to enhance the understanding of the physical processes driving European weather extremes in present and future climates; to advance predictive capabilities for weather extremes; and to evaluate impacts of weather extremes under global change. To achieve these objectives, the project has combined climate science, statistical mechanics, dynamical systems theory, risk management, agronomy, epidemiology and more. Examples of enhanced understanding of physical processes include new insights into the genesis of the strongest windstorms and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic and a deepened understanding of the atmospheric and ocean-related precursors and dynamics of blocking. Improved prediction of extreme events has been supported, for example, through the study of anomalous configurations of the North Atlantic jet on seasonal scales and the associated surface extremes and an analysis of how quantifying atmospheric persistence can enhance numerical weather forecasts of extreme temperatures in Europe. Examples of evaluation of socio-economic and public health impacts of the extremes include validating innovative heat-health forecasts, developing attributions of heat-related mortality to climate change and laying the grounds for quantitative impact-based drought forecasts.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union

Project objective

EDIPI (european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts) aims to further our holistic understanding of the dynamics, predictability and impacts of temperature, precipitation (including drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe. The three overarching scientific questions we will tackle are: Why does a specific type of weather extreme occur? How can we use this knowledge to better predict it? And finally, what are the likely impacts once it does occur? Excellence in science will be achieved by a truly interdisciplinary approach. EDIPI will combine climate science, statistical mechanics, dynamical systems theory, risk management, agronomy, epidemiology and more to open unexplored avenues in the study of European weather extremes. Examples include the use of concepts from statistical mechanics to generate large datasets of simulated extreme winter storms, or of data from social networks to forecast temperature-attributable mortality. Excellence in training will be expressed by creating a cohort of weather extremes experts, who combine a physical understanding of high-impact weather extremes with a practical knowledge of predictability tools and an appreciation of user-relevant information required by the private sector. EDIPI will further place great emphasis on soft and transferrable skills, such as scientific programming, IPR, communication and stakeholder engagement, and on open science in accordance with the FAIR principle.EDIPI’s scientific and training philosophy will ease the development of the project’s findings into products and services and provide a key contribution to enhancing European innovation capacity. It will further prepare the project’s ESRs for a broad range of careers, from academia to the private sector (e.g. insurers, risk managers, catastrophe modellers, financial institutions dealing with weather derivatives) to public bodies (e.g. national weather services, public health agencies, civil protection services).

Original text from CORDIS.

Participants

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET · UppsalaCoordinatorSweden
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRS · ParisFrance
EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH · ZuerichSwitzerland
FUNDACION PRIVADA INSTITUTO DE SALUD GLOBAL BARCELONA · BarcelonaSpain
IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE · LondonUnited Kingdom
INSTITUT ROYAL METEOROLOGIQUE DE BELGIQUE · Bruxelles / BrusselBelgium
KARLSRUHER INSTITUT FUER TECHNOLOGIE · KarlsruheGermany
STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET · StockholmSweden
TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY · Tel AvivIsrael

EDIPI · european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Results in brief

european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Project objective

Participants

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