EXTREME · Robust attribution of human-induced thermodynamic and dynamic contributions in historical changes of regional heat and cold waves over Europe

Robust attribution of human-induced thermodynamic and dynamic contributions in historical changes of regional heat and cold waves over Europe

Project Overview: Understanding and Attributing European Climate Extremes Europe has been grappling with increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes, from scorching heat waves to bone-chilling cold outbreaks. The EXTREME project aims to uncover the drivers behind these events and quantify the human contribution to them. Context: Challenges of European Climate Extremes Europe has experienced record-breaking climate events, like the event in 2019 surpassing the notorious 2003 heat wave, alongside a rise in winter cold outbreaks. A classical theory explains that heat and cold waves result from two main factors: regional energy and water vapor budgets (thermodynamic processes), and large-scale atmospheric circulations (dynamic processes). To further understand the role of human activity, a new field called 'event attribution science' emerged, aiming to ‘probabilistically estimate whether and to what degree anthropogenic drivers change the odds of a past extreme event’. A growing body of research is now making more progress in understanding their drivers. However, how human activities influence these events through thermodynamic and dynamic processes remains largely unknown. Objectives: Quantifying Human Contribution The main scientific goal of The EXTREME project is to robustly attribute historical changes in regional heat and cold waves over Europe to anthropogenic drivers from thermodynamic and dynamic perspectives, with attribution uncertainty quantifications. Pathways to Impact: Science, Policy, and Practice The EXTREME project outputs a suit of high-quality climate datasets and an innovative attribution approach for a wider range of applications, including for attributing rainfall extremes. By shedding light on the human footprint on European climate extremes, the EXTREME project aims to equip policymakers with evidence-based insights for crafting effective mitigation strategies. Additionally, by quantifying attribution uncertainties, it may facilitate adaptive decision-making in the face of climate uncertainty.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union