DeCaGloPreCEs · Decadal to multi-deCadal Global Predictions of Compound Events

Decadal to multi-deCadal Global Predictions of Compound Events

Climate extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, and their compounded combinations, pose significant threats to socio-economic systems globally. These events disrupt agriculture, water resources, public health, and infrastructure, often leading to catastrophic consequences for communities and economies. Under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, such extreme events are projected to become not only more frequent but also more intense. This escalation underscores the urgent need to improve our ability to predict these occurrences through skillful and reliable climate predictions. By enhancing our understanding and forecasting capabilities, we can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of these extremes. This project is designed with the primary aim of addressing critical gaps in our predictive understanding of hot, dry, and compound hot-dry extremes. Specifically, it seeks to assess the prediction skill of these events by analyzing the role of natural climate variability on regional and global scales. Another central objective of the project is to provide robust future projections of how heatwaves, droughts, and their combined occurrences are likely to evolve under various climate change scenarios. Using state-of-the-art climate models and observational datasets, the project will quantify expected changes in the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of these events. This information is vital for policymakers and stakeholders, enabling them to make informed decisions about adaptation and mitigation strategies. In addition to these predictive and projection-focused goals, the project aims to delve deeper into the physical mechanisms that underpin the sources of predictability for these events. By identifying and quantifying the key drivers—such as teleconnections—the project will enhance our understanding of the complex systems that govern regional hot and dry extremes. Understanding these processes is crucial for refining climate models and improving their predictive capabilities. In conclusion, this project is a comprehensive effort to enhance the predictability, understanding, and management of hot, dry, and compound hot-dry extremes. By focusing on natural climate variability, future projections, and physical mechanisms, it seeks to provide a strong foundation for mitigating the growing risks associated with these climate extremes in a warming world.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union