UN3 · Understanding Under Uncertainty: Symbiotic Relations Between the Storyline Approach and the Philosophy of Scientific Understanding

Understanding Under Uncertainty: Symbiotic Relations Between the Storyline Approach and the Philosophy of Scientific Understanding

Decision-making on climate risks increasingly takes place under deep uncertainty, where traditional probabilistic approaches alone struggle to account for complex causal pathways, extreme events, and the plurality of values and knowledges involved. In recent years, the storyline approach has emerged within climate science – especially in the detection and attribution of extreme events – as a complementary framework that emphasises plausibility, causal pathways, and counterfactual reasoning. Despite its growing use, the epistemic status, legitimacy, and policy relevance of storyline-based understanding remain contested. Against this background, the MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowship project UN3 "Understanding Under Uncertainty" set out to examine the status of storyline-based scientific understanding and its potential contributions to more effective, legitimate, and just decision-making under deep uncertainty, particularly in the context of climate adaptation. The project operated at the intersection of philosophy of science and climate science, while introducing inter- and transdisciplinary components to enhance its broader academic and sociopolitical relevance. Throughout the project, Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) played a central role, particularly through engagement with philosophy of science, political philosophy, and ethics. UN3 had three main objectives. First, it aimed to clarify and evaluate the epistemic status of storyline-based understanding in terms of its factivity, especially in comparison with more traditional probabilistic (or risk-based) approaches. Second, it sought to investigate how such forms of understanding can support effective and actionable decision-making, paying particular attention to the role of values in science and policy advice. Third, the project aimed to explore the transdisciplinary dimensions of storyline-based understanding, focusing on the integration of local knowledges and the promotion of epistemic justice in climate-related policymaking. The project’s pathway to impact connects conceptual clarification to policy relevance. By legitimising storyline-based approaches as genuine forms of scientific understanding, developing normative frameworks for the legitimation of values, and proposing practical tools for inclusive policymaking, UN3 contributes to EU priorities on climate adaptation, democratic governance of science, and socially robust knowledge co-production. Its expected impacts span from advancing philosophical debates to informing climate adaptation policies that are more inclusive, legitimate, and responsive to uncertainty.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union