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HEIndividual fellowship2023–2025

PRO-SLIDE · Probabilistic decision framework for Resilience assessment of Offshore energy infrastructures subjected to seismic Submarine landsLIDE hazard (PRO-SLIDE)

Horizon Europe — Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Duration
2023-12-01 → 2025-11-30
EU contribution
€214,934
Participants
3
Scheme
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF

Lines connect the coordinator with its partners.

Results in brief

Probabilistic decision framework for Resilience assessment of Offshore energy infrastructures subjected to seismic Submarine landsLIDE hazard (PRO-SLIDE)

Offshore energy infrastructure (OEI) plays a central role in the EU’s energy transition strategy. As offshore wind and other marine energy systems expand into deeper waters and sloping seabeds, their exposure to geohazards such as seismic submarine landslides (SSLs) increases. These hazards can induce large permanent seabed deformations, excess pore water pressure generation, and progressive failure mechanisms that are not adequately captured by current design and assessment approaches. Existing methods for evaluating OEI performance under SSLs are either overly conservative (pseudo-static approaches) or computationally demanding and impractical for routine engineering applications. This limits the ability of designers and decision-makers to perform efficient, risk-informed assessments and may lead to either unsafe designs or unnecessary overdesign. The overall objective of PRO-SLIDE is to develop a reliable and low-computational-cost framework for simplified resilience and damage assessment of offshore energy infrastructure subjected to submarine landslides. The project bridges the gap between simplified and advanced numerical methods by extracting physically meaningful insights from calibrated numerical and centrifuge-based models and translating them into predictive and probabilistic tools. PRO-SLIDE integrates numerical modelling, benchmark centrifuge testing, data-driven prediction, and fragility analysis to quantify OEI deformation and damage probability under submarine landslide hazards. The expected outcomes include simplified predictive models and fragility curves that support early-stage design, screening-level hazard assessment, and performance-based decision-making. By reducing uncertainty while maintaining physical realism, the project contributes to safer, more cost-effective, and resilient offshore energy systems, aligned with EU priorities on sustainable energy infrastructure and climate resilience.

Data: CORDIS, © European Union

Project objective

The offshore energy infrastructure (OEI)-soil interaction has been studied by numerical analyses in the literature. However, these studies are rarely focused on the performance of OEIs during the seismic submarine landslide (SSL). Moreover, the pseudo-static approach employed for stability assessment of OEI is generally conservative for deep water conditions. The dynamic approach needs a wide range of input parameters and spends a lot of time and money on analyses. Accordingly, predictive models are needed to fill the gap between these approaches for a simple prediction of OEI deformations during SSL. The overall objective of PRO-SLIDE is to develop a reliable and low computational cost solution for simplified resilience assessment of OEIs damage due to SSLs. Answering this concern is not trivial, but it can guide future analyses and contribute to gaining insights from a calibration effort using numerical models that will be undertaken using a benchmark centrifuge model that can successfully capture key mechanisms and features as well as trends. The findings will be based on a database produced via advanced numerical analyses of the OEI-SSL mechanism using the DEM-FEM, a catalog of near-fault ground motions, machine learning technic, and probabilistic/fragility analyses. A two-way transfer of knowledge is guaranteed since I have a solid background in the development of earthquake-induced sliding models and ground motions databank and also my supervisor at AAU has vast experience in the resilience assessment of OEIs and data-driven models. Moreover, my supervisors at secondments (RMIT&HKUST) have great experience in the fields of OEI numerical simulation and physical modeling. Accordingly, this will ensure the achievement of this timely and innovative project as well as the dissemination and exploitation of the expected results. The acquired skills will allow me to embrace an academic/non-academic career path in the EU.

Original text from CORDIS.

Participants

  • AALBORG UNIVERSITET · AalborgCoordinatorDenmark
  • HONG KONG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY · Hong KongHong Kong SAR China
  • ROYAL MELBOURNE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY*RMIT UNIVERSITY · MelbourneAustralia

Links

Data: CORDIS, © European Union