Incorporating uncertainty into the examination of optimal abstraction policies for groundwater resources

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Project objective

Research objectives and content The purpose of this research is to examine the conditions under which the optimal development of an aquifer can be achieved, and to outline optimal groundwater management policies. The objective is to develop a computer-based method to identify optimal patterns of groundwater abstraction within a set of economic and environmental constraints, taking into account the uncertainty of some parameters that influence groundwater flow. The method will be based on the coupling of a simulation model, that reproduces groundwater flow for various abstraction scenarios, and an optimisation model, that determines optimal abstraction patterns by minimising a cost function. This approach is also referred to as simulation-optimisation groundwater management modelling. An important innovative feature of the research is that it will consider uncertainty related to natural recharge and water demand. This problem has not been explored thoroughly, with previous work concentrating on uncertainty in aquifer hydraulic properties. A graphical user interface for the management model will be developed, in order to make the model accessible to water managers and to allow them to introduce information coming from their own experience and expertise. The management model will be tested on data related to hypothetical aquifers, and it will be used to examine how optimal abstraction patterns are affected by hydrogeological features such as sea-aquifer or river-aquifer interaction. The simulation-optimisation model will be implemented in the analysis of a real problem related to groundwater resources management. Training content (objective, benefit and expected impact) In order to carry out the research project, the applicant will be required to - acquire knowledge about processes governing groundwater flow; - develop the skills required to model decision-making processes; - learn one or more programming languages; - gain experience in applying newly developed techniques to field situations. The applicant is expected to benefit from the research, because - knowledge and expertise in groundwater management and numerical modelling will be acquired; - the interaction with water managers both from industry and public authorities, which will be necessary to design a suitable user interface for the management model, will provide the applicant a broader view of the social and economical implications of the use of groundwater resources. Links with industry I industrial relevance (22) The research will provide a valuable tool to support decision-makers in the design of both strategic, long-term development of groundwater resources, and operational, day-to-day management of such resources. Case studies will be carried out with the co-operation of water companies and the Environment Agency.

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Participants

• UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM · BIRMINGHAMCoordinatorUnited Kingdom

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