H2020Индивидуална стипендия2016–2018

SYNC · Synchronizing Palaeoclimate data for better understanding of the Solar effect on European Climate

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2016-09-01 → 2018-08-31
Финансиране от ЕС: 195 455 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Слънчевата активност и влиянието ѝ върху европейския климат се анализират чрез данни от езерани седименти, например от езерото Diss Mere. Това помага за по-точното предвиждане на бъдещи регионални ефекти като охлаждане или наводнения, които настоящите климатични модели могат да подценят.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

Synchronizing Palaeoclimate data for better understanding of the Solar effect on European Climate

A grand solar minimum anticipated from 2020 to 2070 raises the possibility of interruption of present-day Global Warming for a few decades. However, the magnitude of resultant regional effects, such as flooding and cooling, may be significantly underestimated in current climate models, since a similar situation has never been recorded by instrumental data. Between AD 1400 and 1850, Europe experienced a period of cooling known as the Little Ice Age, which was associated with episodes of persistently very low solar activity. In England, the freezing weather, together with changes in rainfall patterns, had a strong impact on agriculture and society, with famine and disease killing millions. Nowadays, vulnerability to natural climate variability and the collateral impact on the economies are commensurately heightened because of the global population expansion and complexity of its societal infrastructure. This project aims to clarify the important climatic role, and potential regional effects, of future variations in solar activity. The main objective is to generate robust regional palaeoclimatic information for past periods of grand solar minima, to substitute for the lack of instrumental data, as a basis for reducing the uncertainty of future predictions. Both solar activity and climate variability during the last 5,000 years are reconstructed from the lacustrine record of Diss Mere in the UK. The reconstructions are thus linked to other palaeoclimate records in Europe using regional time markers deposited in their sediments.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

The sun activity is decreasing since 1996 and a grand solar minimum is expected to occur from 2020 to 2070. The magnitude of solar forcing on the current climate is still uncertain. This project aims to test the existence of quasic-periodic decadal to centennial natural climate variability modulated by grand solar minima during the Late Holocene, which resulted in abrupt climate changes in Europe on time-scale of a few years and has the potential to trigger comparable changes in the future. Describing the timing and the abruptness of the climate response to shifts in the solar activity requires very accurate climate reconstructions and dating, in particular where absolute ages are hampered by the presence of 14C plateaux. This research project will focus on the precise comparison of Late Holocene palaeoclimate records from annually resolved (varved) archives across Europe, with the core goal of estimating the velocity of the climate response to grand solar minima and possible seasonal effects. The project’s novelty lies in the synchronization of very accurate varve chronologies from two European lakes, Diss Mere (England) and Meerfelder Maar (Germany), using tephra layers as synchronous markers. Tephrochronology and varve counting will thus be integrated as a multidisciplinary dating method to minimize the uncertainty derived from individual chronologies (varve counting error). Tephra (volcanic ash) from explosive eruption and atmospheric cosmogenic isotopes s are deposited over large areas synchronously and are reliably correlated to known eruptions. Varved sediments provide accurate chronologies and also store climatic signals at seasonal resolution. The interdisciplinary perspective adopted by this study is designed to tackle gaps in our knowledge of the solar-climate phasing and to provide the most precise proxy data to the climate modelling community. The facilities of Royal Holloway, University of London supports the innovate methodological approach.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

ROYAL HOLLOWAY AND BEDFORD NEW COLLEGE · EGHAMКоординаторОбединеното кралство