H2020Индивидуална стипендия2017–2019

NeTNPPAO · Near-term predictability of net primary production in the Atlantic Ocean

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2017-01-09 → 2019-05-31
Финансиране от ЕС: 170 122 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF-EF-ST

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Производството на биомаса от фитопланктон в Атлантическия океан се анализира, за да се подобрят прогнозите за него в краткосрочен план. Това помага за по-доброто управление на риболова, тъй като количеството риба зависи пряко от наличната храна в океана.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

Near-term predictability of net primary production in the Atlantic Ocean

With new predictions of future world population reaching 9.6 billion by 2050 and the related spectre of a global food crisis, the necessity to improve our ability to manage world's fisheries has never been more pressing. A fundamental step in this direction and the main goal of NeTNPPAO is the improvement of near-term (i.e. seasonal to decadal) predictions of Net Primary Production (NPP) in the Atlantic Ocean. NPP is the rate of production of phytoplankton biomass, the primary source of food for marine animal life and there is close relationship between fish biomass and NPP in the open ocean. According to “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture-2012”3 (Food and Agriculture Organization - FAO), in 2010 the Eastern Tropical Atlantic sustained two of the top three fishery industries of the African continent (Morocco and Senegal) with total catches of ~4 million tons while the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic areas together summed ~11 million tons of landed fish with important economic impacts on both Europe and North America. However, all 6 Atlantic fishing areas identified in the report have shown decreasing trends or considerable fluctuations in catches during the past decades resulting from either environmental variability, fishing pressure or a combination of both. Many studies point to a tight connection between fluctuations in fish populations and both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, in the past fish stocks management has often relied on the assumption that marine ecosystems were in long-term equilibrium, with fishing pressure being the dominant factor controlling fish populations. This resulted in management strategies based on extrapolations from historical time-series of fish catches, leading in some cases to overestimated sustainable harvest rates that contributed to the decline of fish stocks. Therefore, the improvement of ecosystem-based strategies is becoming a priority for near-future fisheries management.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

The main goal of this research project is the improvement of near-term (i.e. seasonal to decadal) predictions of Net Primary Production (NPP) in the Atlantic Ocean. NPP is the rate of production of phytoplankton biomass, the primary source of food for marine animal life and thus a fundamental environmental variable to be taken into account in fishery management strategies. The activities proposed are based on a suite of simulations with an Earth System Model (ESM). These simulations include reconstructions of the biogeochemical state of the Atlantic ocean for the period 1960 to present and a set of near-term predictions initialized every 3 years for the period 1979 to present. The simulations are designed to test the ability of two different initialization techniques to provide predictive skill to the NPP prediction. One initialization technique is based on data-assimilation of physical fields only. As an absolute novelty, the second technique proposed is based on the reconstruction of 3D nutrient fields. This combines information from climatological nutrient fields and reconstructed water masses variability. This combination is meant to exploit the ability of Atlantic mode waters to propagate a signal on nutrient distribution on interannual timescales providing a source of predictability for nutrients and thus for NPP. Skill scores will be used to validate the near-term predictions derived from both techniques and the best performing one will be extended to 10-year forecast and initialization every year in order to obtain a complete evaluation of the predictive capability of the modeling system (ESM+initialization technique).

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACION · BARCELONAКоординаторИспания