H2020Индивидуална стипендия2018–2020

M-TRAIT · Modelling Tree Response to Aridity Increase with Traits

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2018-02-01 → 2020-06-20
Финансиране от ЕС: 158 122 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF-EF-ST

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Моделите за взаимодействие между земята и атмосферата се подобряват чрез добавяне на физиологични характеристики на дърветата, за да се предвиди как те реагират на суша. Това помага за по-точни прогнози за бъдещите загуби в горския сектор и адаптация към климата.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

Modelling Tree Response to Aridity Increase with Traits

Even if we succeed in decarbonizing the world’s economy, the targeted global temperature increase of 1.5 to 2 K by 2100 will still produce significant changes in the water cycle . One predicted change is an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts in Europe . For forests, the consequences of these droughts are expected to range from productivity decline to abrupt mortality . By 2100 these effects are projected to translate into economic losses estimated to range between 14 and 50% in the forestry sector . Forest stakeholders and policymakers are well aware of the need to adapt to future climate; yet, despite decades of research our predictions of the effects of droughts on forest ecosystems are still highly uncertain – a lack of knowledge that calls for novel approaches and knowledge transfer. Land surface models (LSMs) simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the interaction between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. They are a key component of the so-called ‘Earth systems models’ used for recommendations by the intergovernmental panel for climate change, and where they are expected to tackle large-scale questions related to land-atmosphere interactions. The predictive power of LSMs is hampered by their over-parameterization , that implies that a good result can be obtained for the wrong reasons. Indeed, most physiological processes are represented by semi-empirical equations, with parameters calibrated for specific sites and conditions that do not always have ecological meaning and that might not necessarily hold under future climate. For LSMs to be able to simulate forest response to droughts outside their calibration range requires the implementation of the main physiological characteristics the so-called ‘traits’ that vary with environmental conditions , and drive trees’ response to environmental changes. This requirement leads to the overall challenge of this fellowship, to advance the representation of drought- related physiological processes in LSMs using the cutting-edge multidisciplinary approach of trait modelling. The aim is to enhance society’s understanding of future impacts of drought on European forests.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

The changes in precipitation patterns that are projected for the coming decades are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts. Despite the potentially dramatic impacts on wood and forest-based ecosystem services, the effect of these changes in the hydrological cycle on European forests is still highly uncertain. One reason for this gap in the knowledge is the inadequacy of the tools currently used to address large-scale land-atmosphere processes at continental scales, the land surface models (LSMs). Indeed, the predictive power of LSMs is hampered by their heavy parameterization of empirical hydrological modules, with parameters fixed per broad plant type irrespective of the environmental conditions. This representation is contradictory to the ecological processes of acclimation and selection and makes the LSMs unsuitable outside of their calibration range especially under extreme conditions. Ecologists have now made progress in describing traits – tree characteristics that define plant growth strategies. Plant traits vary as much within species as between species, as individuals and communities adapt to their environmental conditions.M-TRAIT will bring the latest ecological findings together with a state-of-the-art LSM to model large-scale forest response to droughts. The trait determinants to the drought response of trees will be determined from analysis of worldwide trait databases. The relationships between traits and with the environment will be formulated. The key traits will then be integrated into a forestry-enhanced LSM with an individuals-sampling approach in which a large number of plant growth strategies are initialized and allowed to interact with environmental conditions. The outcome of M-TRAIT will be 100-year simulations of the drought effect on forests under different climate change scenarios, as well as an analysis of the consequences for forest-based ecosystem services based on proxy ecological variables.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

CENTRO DE INVESTIGACION ECOLOGICA Y APLICACIONES FORESTALES · BELLATERRAКоординаторИспания