EPICE · Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe
„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“
- Период
- 2018-10-01 → 2020-09-30
- Финансиране от ЕС
- 173 076 €
- Участници
- 1
- Схема
- MSCA-IF-EF-ST
Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.
Накратко на български
Атлантическата меридионална преобръщаща циркулация (AMOC) и нейните разлики в климатичните модели се анализират чрез сравнение с исторически данни. Това помага за по-точни прогнози за климата в Европа и явления като ураганите и сушата в Сахел.
Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.
Резултати накратко
Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) represents the Atlantic branch of the global overturning circulation. It plays a significant role in both local and global climate, transporting heat from the South Atlantic to the North Atlantic and sequestering anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Changes in the strength of the AMOC are thought to be an important driver of changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SSTs). Hence, changes in the AMOC strength could have important impacts on a range of far-reaching phenomena, including the number of hurricanes, Sahel drought, and Atlantic storm tracks. In this project, we investigate the different behaviour of the AMOC amongst climate models, focussing initially on the underlying model parameter choices. Our objectives are to: 1) Jointly investigate the specific mechanisms of North Atlantic variations in state-of-the-art models that share the same ocean and compare with historical observations, allowing us to... 2) Evaluate how these comparisons are sensitive to the model formulation, via targeted experiments, to determine the links between parameter choices and features of the variability , which will enable us to... 3) Derive emergent constraints to narrow the spread across the entire CMIP6 model suite of long term projections and near term predictions.
Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз
Цел на проекта
The North Atlantic Ocean has been shown to be 1) potentially predictable up to a decade ahead, 2) important in the predictability of other regions/indices e.g. European temperatures, Atlantic hurricanes, Sahel rainfall, and, 3) crucial to the manifestation of longer term climate change involving the large-scale ocean (e.g. the AMO/AMV; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Variability).Nonetheless, similarly to the widely considered “equilibrium climate sensitivity” (ECS; the long term temperature change in a climate model given a doubling of carbon dioxide levels), the spread in projections over the North Atlantic has remained large throughout IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports.In this project, we will investigate the causes of the spread in climate projections of the North Atlantic across IPCC-CMIP6 to derive emergent constraints that will allow better projections of climate change in Europe: We will (1) investigate the specific mechanisms of North Atlantic change in these models and compare with historical observations. This will lead to (2) testing how these comparisons are sensitive to the model formulation (via targeted experiments in two comparable state-of-the-art CMIP6 models from European institutions that use the same underlying ocean model). Finally, this will allow us to (3) derive emergent constraints to narrow the spread in CMIP6 projections.This project will combine the statistical power of the CMIP6 archive with the detailed process understanding obtained from targeted sensitivity experiments conducted within a coordinated ocean framework. Our goal is twofold: To understand the mechanisms behind climate change projections in the North Atlantic/Europe and to use this knowledge to derive emergent constraints with which to narrow the uncertainties in these important projections.EPICE: Emergent Properties to Improve European Climate Estimates
Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).
Участници
- SORBONNE UNIVERSITE · ParisКоординаторФранция
Връзки
Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз