STARFLOOD · Space-Time scAling of the Rainfall to FLOOD transformation

Space-Time scAling of the Rainfall to FLOOD transformation

What is the problem/issue being addressed in STARFLOOD? Reliable approaches for estimating flood magnitudes of a given probability in space and time are indispensable to optimize flood risk management and minimize future damage and loss of life. A common approach in engineering practice to estimate a flood without available river records is the design storm method. In the design storm method, probabilities of the rainfall are first estimated and the rainstorm is then used as input data for a rainfall-runoff model, which translates the rainfall event into a flood. The flood event is then assumed to have the same probability as the rainfall event. However, up until today, it is not fully clear under which climatic and geological conditions this assumption really holds, which is why it is widely debated. The project Space-Time scAling of the Rainfall to FLOOD transformation (STARFLOOD) addresses this lack of understanding of the relationship between rainfall and flood probabilities. This is conducted across Austria (i) based on analysis of observed rainfall and river flow time series and (ii) using coupled framework of rainfall and rainfall-runoff models, i.e. extrapolation of time series. Why is the topic of STARFLOOD important for society? Floods are among the costliest of all natural hazards. The recent wide-spread flood in Central Europe in June 2013, for example, incurred more than EUR 12 billion economic losses, and flood risks are expected to increase significantly in the future due to increasing exposure and due to climatic changes. One must be aware that the basic assumption of equal probabilities in common engineering methods described above has far-reaching consequences for the society: In cases where the assumption does not hold (i) flood hazard assessment may lead to either over-design of a structure i.e. potentially unnecessary use of public tax payer money, or (ii) under-design i.e. a too low protection level for a given location with potentially dire consequences for the infrastructure, economy and for life. What are the overall objectives of STARFLOOD? The project STARFLOOD responds to the research gaps addressed above by investigating how the probabilities of rainfall transform into probabilities of floods from a space-time perspective. This is achieved in two ways: (i) analyses based on pure data analysis, i.e. analyses based on observed time series of rainfall and floods to gain improved understanding; (ii) analyses based on the use of stochastic weather models and rainfall-runoff model. The analyses are conducted in the country of Austria with long available observations of rainfall of runoff at good spatial density. Objective I: STARFLOOD explores the performance of the full cascade of rainfall to flood probabilities Objective II: STARFLOOD explores the physical causes of flood probabilities Objective III. STARFLOOD improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of hydrological processes

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз