ACCWA · Accounting for Climate Change in Water and Agriculture management

Accounting for Climate Change in Water and Agriculture management

The Mediterranean is among the most sensitive areas to climate change as demonstrated in many studies (IPCC, 2013). The models issued by IPCC cast different scenarios for the Mediterranean Region, but all of them agree on a clear trend in the pattern of some climatic parameters. In terms of the thermal regime, the base scenario from 1980-2000 was used to estimate an increase in average surface temperatures in the range of 2.2 and 5.1°C for the period 2080-2100. For the same period, the models indicated pronounced rainfall regime changes in the Mediterranean and estimated that precipitation over lands might vary between -4% and -27%. The increased temperatures will lead to higher potential evapotranspiration (ET), which in turn will decrease water resources. Increased rainfall variability and ET rates will compromise irrigation potential and expansion plans and increase competition and conflict over limited water resources. There are significant knowledge gaps and uncertainties about how much water will be available for a complete growing season, how much should be used for scheduling irrigation efficiently and extracted from these regions. The expected impact in rainfed agriculture is a decrease in yield due to heat and water stress and an increase in the likeliwood of crop failure in rainfed crops for maize, millet and sorghum. Ongoing changes in the socio-economic and environmental background of rainfed farmers combined with the expected population growth make timely and reliable information on rainfed crop yield and its spatial variability essential in decision-support for improving food security and livelihoods. Precipitation projections are uncertain due to high inter-annual variation, but inter-annual and spatial varibaility are expected to increase. It is expected the duration of the rainy season be shorter and summer dry spells be longer increasing agriculture land deterioration and desertification. Temperature and precipitation changing patterns will thus increase hazards linked to environmental conditions such as droughts, floods or crop pests like locust swarms and others transboundary pests outbreaks. In order to reduce the impact of these hazards a critical component is a comprehensive hazards monitoring system that can provide early warning and deliver that information to users in a timely manner. In this climate change context, ACCWA aims to develop the remote sensing based monitoring tools for agriculture and water management that help risk guidance.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз