HEGS · Hydrologic Extremes at the Global Scale: teleconnections, extreme-rich/poor periods, climate drivers and predictability
„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“
- Период
- 2019-05-17 → 2022-05-16
- Финансиране от ЕС
- 281 827 €
- Участници
- 2
- Схема
- MSCA-IF-GF
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Накратко на български
Хидрологичните екстремуми, като наводненията и обилните валежи, се анализират в глобален мащаб и тяхната връзка с климата. По-доброто разбиране на тези процеси помага за подобряване на безопасността и подготовката при природни бедствия.
Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.
Резултати накратко
Hydrologic Extremes at the Global Scale: teleconnections, extreme-rich/poor periods, climate drivers and predictability
Hydrologic extremes (floods and heavy precipitation events) are among Earth’s most common natural hazards and cause considerable loss of life and economic damage. Despite this, some of their key characteristics are still poorly understood at the global scale. The IPCC thus reports that “confidence about peak flow trends over past decades on the global scale is low”. More generally, the space-time variability of hydrologic extremes is yet to be thoroughly described at the global scale. As a striking illustration, the recent initiative “23 unsolved problems in Hydrology” includes questions such as: Is the hydrological cycle regionally accelerating/decelerating under climate and environmental change? How do extremes around the world teleconnect with each other and with other factors? How do flood-rich and drought-rich periods arise, are they changing, and if so why? It is vital to fill these knowledge gaps to inform design, safety and financial procedures and to improve hazard preparedness and response. The project’s ambition is hence to better understand the global space-time variability of hydrologic extremes, using a three-pillar research strategy based on methodological innovation, extensive data analysis and proof-of-concept case studies. The specific objectives are to: 1. Develop a statistical framework to describe the global-scale variability of extremes in relation to climate; 2. Analyze global precipitation/streamflow datasets with the aim of quantifying teleconnections, spatial clustering, trends and extreme-rich/poor periods, along with their climate drivers; 3. Explore practical applications such as past reconstruction, future projection or seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes, and their interest for understanding natural variability, adapting to climate change or improving disaster preparedness. The work performed during the project allowed delivering new tools to analyze extremes at the global scale, along with a 100-year analysis and a 180-year reconstruction of floods and heavy precipitation probabilities at the global scale.
Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз
Цел на проекта
Hydrologic extremes (floods and intense precipitations) are among Earth’s most common natural hazards and cause considerable loss of life and economic damage. Despite this, some of their key characteristics are still poorly understood at the global scale. The IPCC thus reports “a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”. More generally, the space-time variability of hydrologic extremes is yet to be thoroughly described at the global scale. As a striking illustration, the recent initiative “23 unsolved problems in Hydrology that would revolutionise research in the 21st century” of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences includes questions such as: are the characteristics of extreme hydrologic events changing and if so why? How do extremes around the world teleconnect with each other and with other factors? Why do extreme-rich/poor periods exist?It is vital to fill these knowledge gaps to inform design, safety and financial procedures and to improve hazard preparedness and response. The project’s ambition is hence to better understand the global space-time variability of hydrologic extremes, using a three-pillar research strategy based on methodological innovation, extensive data analysis and proof-of-concept case studies. The specific objectives are to:1. Develop a statistical framework to describe the global-scale variability of extremes in relation to climate;2. Analyse global precipitation/streamflow datasets with the aim of quantifying teleconnections, spatial clustering, trends and extreme-rich/poor periods, along with their climate drivers;3. Explore practical applications such as global early warning systems allowing international disaster response organisations to trigger early actions.Successful completion of the project will deliver new tools to analyse extremes at the global scale and will hence contribute to more efficient risk management.
Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).
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Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз