H2020Индивидуална стипендия2019–2021

CAOS · Containment, Avalanches and Optimisation in Spreading-processes

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2019-08-01 → 2021-07-31
Финансиране от ЕС: 224 934 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF-EF-ST

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Накратко на български

Математически модели и алгоритми анализират разпространението на епидемии, като например начина, по който се разнася вирусът SARS-CoV-2. Тези анализи помагат за подобряване на стратегиите за ограничаване на болестите и спасяването на човешки животи.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

Containment, Avalanches and Optimisation in Spreading-processes

The project “Containment, Avalanches and Optimisation in Spreading-processes” (CAOS) was originally aimed at studying the nature of spreading-processes and possible industrial applications. Starting from early 2020, the emerging COVID-19 pandemic due to the rapid spread of SARS-COV-2 virus has created serious challenges on public health and the global economy, as well as obstacles in the implementation of this action. Following the suggestion of the European Commission, we reoriented the main objectives of the project to address research problems related to COVID-19. Elucidating the characteristics of the spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus and resolving practical issues in the global effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic are clearly highly important for society. Appropriate and timely measures can directly contribute to saving lives, while deeper and more thorough understanding of spreading processes can help with refining the mitigation strategies and providing evidence and support for fighting future epidemic spreads. The overall objectives of this project are to develop mathematical models and algorithms to gain theoretical insights into epidemic spreading related issues, which include (i) developing principled probabilistic analysis of epidemic spreading to better understand the disease spread of COVID-19; (ii) designing group testing strategy for boosting test capacity for COVID-19; (iii) investigating the spread of failure in support service networks due to epidemic spreading; (iv) investigating decision-making strategies under uncertainty; (v) applying the developed mathematical techniques to neighboring fields in complex systems. A simultaneous objective of this project is to provide various skills training to the Fellow and foster his career development. The project has achieved most of its objectives for the period.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

Spreading processes, such as cascading failure of technological networks, epidemic outbreak and contagion in socialnetworks are ubiquitous and have a significant impact on the modern society. In many cases, transitions to large-scaleblackouts or global pandemics occur abruptly due to tiny changes in system parameters; epidemics and social movementscan spread out explosively, forming avalanche-like outbreaks in a very short period. The drastic transitions are beneficial formaking global impact of boosting charity campaigns and commercial advertising but can also have catastrophicconsequences when epidemics or failures spread to large part of a critical systems abruptly, without any early warningsignals. Moreover, multiple cooperative of competitive spreading processes make the picture even more complex.Previous work in this area focused on the asymptotic manifestation of the process and typically ignored the interplaybetween specific system topology and the dynamics. Methods to monitor, identify and control drastic transitions andoutbreaks in heterogeneous realistic networks are lacking. In this project, we will investigate the signs for abrupt transitionsand avalanche outbreaks both macroscopically and in specific instances, to gain insight into the conditions for their onset.We will develop methods to contain (or facilitate) the outbreaks by optimal deployment of resources, such as applyingvaccines or distributing promotion material by employing the recently developed dynamic message passing techniques fromstatistical physics. We will collaborate with British Telecom to promote product marketing and service provision by using thenew optimisation algorithms. This project will have significant impact on the scientific understanding of non-equilibriumspreading processes, provide algorithmic solutions for practical problems in specific instances, will support policy makingdecisions and offer optimal resource allocation for commercial marketing tasks.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

ASTON UNIVERSITY · BirminghamКоординаторОбединеното кралство