H2020Индивидуална стипендия2019–2022

CIFTRESS · Climatic Impact on Food Trade RESilience and Security

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2019-05-15 → 2022-04-27
Финансиране от ЕС: 171 473 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF-EF-ST

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Търговските мрежи на пшеница, царевица, соя, ечемик и ориз се анализират, за да се види как климатичните промени променят потоците от тези храни до 2080 г. Това помага да се разберат рисковете от регионални сривове в доставките и тяхното влияние върху продовольствената сигурност.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

Climatic Impact on Food Trade RESilience and Security

Under climate change, crop yields will decrease because the increases in global temperature negatively affect plant growth, water availability, soil fertility, and plant pest control In addition, climate change may disrupt the availability of staple foods for import and export. Under climate change, agricultural commodity trade is predicted to increase in value, and production to shift to regions in the mid to high latitudes, while in low-latitude regions production and export potential would be reduced. Hence, climate change undermines food security and resilience not only by exacerbating the challenges of meeting the demands of a larger and more affluent population but also by propagating regional shocks and disruptions within increasingly interconnected food trade networks. While previous research has focused on the former, the opportunities from and risks for trade networks across regions have remained relatively less explored. More specifically, previous research has mainly considered bilateral ‘direct’ trade relationships, while ‘in-direct’ trade relationships described by ‘network topologies’ have been taken into account only marginally. A network topology defines, in this case, trade relations, as the systems-level architecture composed of nodes and their ‘weighted’, i.e., the strength and intensity, of their connecting flow links. Accordingly, my research objective is to examine the joint climate, agro-environmental, and economic induced changes to the trade network topologies of five staple foods, i.e., wheat, corn, soy, barley, and rice up to the year 2080.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

Global climate change adversely affects crop yields and undermines humanity’s food security and resilience; while previous research has focused on regional agricultural adaptation, the opportunities and vulnerabilities of trade networks have remained less explored. In this vein, this research examines the joint climate, agro-environmental, and economic induced changes to the trade network topologies of five staple foods, i.e., maize, rice, wheat, barley, and soybeans, up to the year 2050 in the European and Mediterranean region. This proposed research adopts an interdisciplinary methodology drawing on crop yield modeling, economic trade modeling, network science, and quantitative scenario building approaches. More specifically, this research will enhance the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) Model with fitness network formation and gravity trade models to reveal the regional origin and destination of staple commodities. Through the enhanced model, the network topologies of current and future scenario staple food trade will be investigated and linked to the notions of resilience and security. Scenarios describing alternative dynamics of staple food trade network topologies for each crop will be developed through a comprehensive literature review focusing on agricultural trends, investments, and regional strategies and semi-structured interviews with agro-economists, agriculture policy specialists, and agricultural trade practitioners. The main innovations of this research project are the enhancement of the IMPACT model and in addition, the application of network analysis to interpret the ‘in-direct’ trade flow relationships which are not well captured by the current model. This will enable an analysis of climate change impacts on staple food trade in the light of the network-based configurations of network efficiency, redundancy, and modularity which are linked to the notions of food resilience and security.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

UNIVERSITA CA' FOSCARI VENEZIA · VeneziaКоординаторИталия