H2020Индивидуална стипендия2020–2022

VULNERAWEB · A Web Platform for Forecasting Species Climatic Vulnerability

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2020-06-01 → 2022-07-31
Финансиране от ЕС: 160 932 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Толерантността на видовете към топлината определя дали определени места ще станат неподходящи за тях, например при твърде високи температури. Това помага за по-доброто разпределяне на инвестициите за адаптация към климатичните промени в Европа.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

A Web Platform for Forecasting Species Climatic Vulnerability

Correct Forecasts of species’ Climatic Vulnerability (FCV) are key to allocate the huge investments necessary to reach Europe’s H2020 and IUCN’s objectives for climatic adaptation. However, for that we need to start by identifying climatically unsuitable places for holding a specie’s populations (e.g. with excessively high temperatures). This information identifies sites where current land use will no longer be suitable because climate will be too extreme for the species relevant to its use (e.g. endangered species in reserves, game species or productive breeds). This MSCA project has analysed different ways in which heat tolerance may restrict species’ distributions. One central question which remains to advance this problem is whether heat tolerance, in so far measured by scientists, is generally capable of identifying thermal restrictions to species’ geographic distribution. A second fundamental problem is to improve the understanding of how thermal tolerance interacts with other factors, such as the time of exposure to stressful temperatures in thermal tolerance.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

Reliable Forecasts of species’ Climatic Vulnerability (FCV) are key to attain objectives in the horizon 2020 program. However, the complexity of FCV, and the massive amount of data needed for it, defy current approaches and data availability. State-of-the-art forecasts use measures of species’ thermal tolerance and of their ability to avoid overheating environments. Still, these models rely on two central premises. First, that a single combination of temperature and time of exposure will induce population declines. Yet, myriads of combinations of temperature and time of exposure can actually kill the individuals of a population. A second premise is that known parameters of thermal tolerance can identify thermal limits for the geographic distribution of species. Finally, whether these premises are true or not, most species lack the data needed to model their vulnerability to climate change.During this project, I will apply, for first time, the concepts of the Thermal Death Curve (TDC) and the Voluntary Thermal Maximum (VTM) to improve forecasts. The TDC represents all the potential combinations of temperature and time that causes population damage and the VTM represents a temperature objectively identified by the organisms as stressful. My preliminary analyses have shown that these tools multiply the power of produced forecasts and prevent dramatic biases introduced by more traditional parameters. Secondly, I will test, on a global scale, whether the known limits of animal’s geographic distributions are set by known measures of their thermal tolerance. Finally, to channel global efforts to the collection of the necessary species data and the generation of robust forecast, I will create an online platform to engage experts in climatic vulnerability world-wide through an action-reward system. This web platform will guide the collection and curation of relevant data, and deliver FCV using the best models available and international expert advice

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

AGENCIA ESTATAL CONSEJO SUPERIOR DE INVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICAS · MadridКоординаторИспания