H2020Индивидуална стипендия2021–2023

ClimateMigration2050 · Projecting migration from Africa and the Middle East into EU countries, driven by climate-change-related crop failure, until 2050

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2021-02-01 → 2023-01-31
Финансиране от ЕС: 162 806 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Миграцията от Африка и Близкия изток към ЕС се анализира чрез връзката между климатичните промени и намалените реколти. Това помага да се предвиди бъдещят поток от хора и дали промените в земеделието могат да намалят тези ефекти.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

Projecting migration from Africa and the Middle East into EU countries, driven by climate-change-related crop failure, until 2050

Quantitatively predicting changes in international migration flows driven by adverse effects of climate change has been a subject of high societal and political interest, given the demographic and socio-economic implications for both sending and receiving countries. Previous work in the space of climate mobility modelling has shown that cross-border migration from agriculturally dependent countries increases as crop productivity decreases due to higher temperatures. The latest generation of global crop models project a marked decline in future crop yields in many parts of Africa, suggesting potentially important consequences for migration. This project aimed to compile state-of-the-art demographic, economic, social, and agricultural data spanning both the historical period and, incorporating different future socio-economic and climatic scenarios, coming decades; and integrate them into a widely-used mathematical framework for modelling international migration. This aimed to identify where migration – focussing on Africa-Europe corridors – driven by climate-change-induced crop failure is likely to occur, and whether suitable agricultural adaptation may lessen adverse effects.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

The increase in migration into EU member countries in 2015, and the socio-political challenges associated with it, have led the EU to set out a strategy to tackle root causes of irregular migration in the countries of origin. Crop failure caused by climate change, in particular, is forecast to be a major driver of international migration in the coming decades. In this project, we will integrate state-of-the-art climate, crop, economic and migration models in order to predict potential migration flows, driven by climate-change-related crop failure, from African and Middle Eastern countries into EU member states until the year 2050. We go on identify optimal adaptation strategies in countries at risk, which can stabilise agricultural production and help minimise future migration pressures. By using multi-model projections, and performing in-depth model uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, we will generate robust projections driven by the best data available, and ensure a transparent assessment of uncertainties. Our results will inform evidence-based action by EU policy makers aimed at minimising future large-scale forced migration driven by climate change.This highly interdisciplinary project will give the Experienced Researcher the opportunity to complement his background in agro-environmental modelling, by developing expertise in the socio-economic dimensions of global food production under climate change. Home to world-leading experts of all disciplines relevant to the project, and exceptionally well connected with national and international governmental and non-governmental bodies, both the Host Institution (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and the Secondment Host Institution (International Organization for Migration) will provide a unique environment for ensuring the highest-quality research and training during the fellowship, as well as the effective communication of results to EU policy makers and the wider public.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

POTSDAM-INSTITUT FUR KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG EV · PotsdamКоординаторГермания