H2020Индивидуална стипендия2021–2024

ATTACH · ATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2021-10-01 → 2024-10-15
Финансиране от ЕС: 174 806 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Влиянието на климатичните промени върху смъртността и хоспитализациите по време на горещи вълни в Германия се анализира чрез данни за смъртността. Точните измервания помагат за подобряване на плановете за действие и системите за ранно предупреждение при екстремни температури.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

ATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange

Climate change is known to affect deaths and hospitalizations associated with heat exposure in Europe. Yet, despite a broad scientific knowledge base on the future impacts of climate change, few studies so far have formally attributed heat-related mortality and morbidity to climate change that has already occurred over the past century. The project ATTACH contributed to the closing of this important research gap, with a special focus on recent European heatwaves. The project made use of death count statistics from major cities and all federal states in Germany, and combined state-of-the-art epidemiological methods with an innovative approach to climate impact attribution. One important conclusion from the work performed is that monitoring systems based on weekly data considerably underestimate heat-related excess mortality compared to analyses based on daily death count data. Accurately measuring heat-related excess mortality is important for the evaluation of adaptation measures adopted, such as heat-health action plans or early warning systems. As such the project also contributed to the implementation of the EU Climate Adaptation Strategy, which requires adaptation actions to rely on robust data and risk assessment tools. The project also showed that human-caused climate change increasingly affects heat-related excess mortality in Germany. These results can contribute to rising the awareness about climate change in the general population, and may also serve as arguments in future climate litigation cases.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

Climate change is known to affect deaths and hospitalizations associated with heat exposure in Europe. Yet, despite a broad epidemiological knowledge base on the future impacts of climate change, few studies so far have formally attributed heat-related mortality and morbidity to climate change that has already occurred over the past century. ATTACH contributes to the closing of this important research gap, with a special focus on recent European heatwaves. The project will make use of death count and hospitalization statistics from major cities in Germany, and will combine state-of-the-art epidemiological approaches (time-series Poisson regression including distributed-lag non-linear models, and meta-regression techniques) with an innovative approach to climate impact attribution. This novel approach derives counterfactual climate data, mimicking a world without climate change, from detrended observations. In line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, effective communication and dissemination activities will ensure that results can be applied to improve adaptation measures for protection of population health from the adverse consequences of climate change. The institutional and training arrangements will guarantee an impactful knowledge transfer between the applicant and the host, opening up opportunities for fruitful collaboration at the interface of epidemiology and climate sciences. Overall, ATTACH will significantly improve the prospective of the applicant for developing a career as an independent research group leader in the field of climate change and health.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

LUDWIG-MAXIMILIANS-UNIVERSITAET MUENCHEN · PlaneggКоординаторГермания