SpaDeRisks · Spatial dependencies of storm surges and global risk assessment.
„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“
- Период
- 2022-01-15 → 2025-01-14
- Финансиране от ЕС
- 253 052 €
- Участници
- 2
- Схема
- MSCA-IF
Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.
Накратко на български
Прибрежните наводнения се изследват като взаимосвързани събития, при които буря в един регион може да засегне едновременно и съседни области. Разбирането на тези връзки помага за по-точна оценка на рисковете и по-добра подготовка на инфраструктурата при климатични промени.
Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.
Резултати накратко
Spatial dependencies of storm surges and global risk assessment.
Coastal flooding caused by extreme storm surges, is a growing threat to communities worldwide. These events can cause widespread damage, disrupt lives, and strain economies. A critical but often overlooked aspect of coastal flooding is the spatial dependency of these events—meaning that when one area experiences flooding, nearby or even distant regions may also be affected simultaneously. Traditional flood risk assessments typically assume that flooding events occur independently, which can lead to underestimating the true risk and potential damage. Coastal flooding is one of the most devastating natural hazards, affecting millions of people and causing billions of euros in damage annually. With climate change accelerating sea-level rise and potentially altering storm patterns, the frequency and severity of coastal flooding are expected to increase. By improving our understanding of how flooding events are spatially connected, we can better predict and prepare for large-scale flooding events. This knowledge is crucial for governments, insurance companies, and coastal planners to design more resilient infrastructure, develop effective emergency response plans, and protect vulnerable communities. The SpaDeRisks project aimed to address these challenges by: 1. Investigating the spatial dependencies of extreme sea levels and storm surges on a global scale, including how these dependencies change over time due to seasonal and decadal climate variability. 2. Developing a new framework to incorporate spatial dependencies into coastal flood risk assessments, providing more accurate estimates of flooding risks and economic losses. 3. Assessing future coastal flood risks under different climate change scenarios, including rising sea levels and potential changes in storm patterns, and accounting for the spatial dependencies.
Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз
Цел на проекта
An extreme still water level (ESWL) event caused by a single storm can affect multiple populations, critical services, and industrial sectors, thus magnifying the impacts of the event. The identification of coastal stretches prone to be impacted simultaneously by an ESWL event is crucial for accurate risk analyses, development of efficient emergency plans, robust insurance schemes, and public adaptation funds. However, little attention has been paid to the study of the spatial extension of storm surges and ESWLs and the related studies were conducted under the assumption of stationarity. Also, the spatial dependencies of the storm surges and ESWLs have been systematically neglected in broad-scale coastal risk assessments. Through a combination of ESWL, surge, and socio-economic datasets, and by using advanced statistical and vulnerability assessment models, SpaDeRisks addresses these knowledge gaps. In this project, it will be (i) investigated, at a global scale, the non-stationarity spatial dependencies of ESWLs and storm surges; (ii) performed a novel framework to include the spatial dependencies into broad-scale coastal flood risk assessment and; (iii) assessed flood coastal impacts under present and future conditions. The new framework will provide additional risk metrics that cannot be derived from traditional broad-scale coastal risk analyses. Results from this project will be relevant for the scientific community and stakeholders involved in coastal management and thus, special attention will be devoted to dissemination and communication. The fellowship will contribute to the development of the researcher career through broadening the competencies in assessing coastal flooding, acquiring new knowledge in oceanographic sciences and advanced statistical techniques, and learning the use of the state-of-the-art models for vulnerability and impact assessment.
Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).
Участници
- STICHTING VU · AmsterdamКоординаторНидерландия
- UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA · OrlandoСъединени щати
Връзки
Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз