H2020Индивидуална стипендия2021–2023

SLOPETEMP · A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model for physically-based assessments of slope stability accounting for climate change

„Хоризонт 2020“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2021-10-01 → 2023-11-30
Финансиране от ЕС: 156 981 €
Участници: 1
Схема: MSCA-IF

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Влиянието на промените в температурата върху стабилността на склоновете се анализира чрез модел, който съчетава топлинни, водни и механични процеси. Това помага за по-точна оценка на риска от свлачища, за да се защитят хората и инфраструктурата при променящия се климат.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model for physically-based assessments of slope stability accounting for climate change

Problem/Issue Being Addressed: The primary issue addressed by this research is the inadequately recognized impact of temperature changes on slope stability, particularly in the context of climate change. Traditional models primarily consider hydrological factors like precipitation, overlooking the direct influence of thermal forcing on the mechanical behavior of soils. This oversight introduces significant uncertainties in landslide hazard assessments and slope stability evaluations. Importance for Society: This research tackles a critical environmental challenge, enhancing our understanding of landslide mechanisms under changing climate conditions. Given the increased frequency of climate-induced geotechnical failures, the findings are vital for the safety of populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems in vulnerable regions. Improved predictive models are essential for developing more effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, aligning with EU climate adaptation policies and global risk management frameworks like the Sendai Framework. Overall Objectives: The project aimed to develop and validate a novel coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) soil model. Objectives included demonstrating the applicability of this model to slope stability analyses under non-isothermal conditions, quantifying the effect of thermal forcing on slope stability through extensive parametric analyses, investigating real case studies to verify model performance, and conceptualizing a regional-scale model to enhance landslide risk assessments.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

Climate change will alter the frequency and patterns of landslides, increasing the risk to people, infrastructures, and ecosystems in many regions worldwide. Scientists mainly draw this conclusion from predicted changes in precipitation, ice covers, sea level, and land use. The direct effect of temperature on slope stability is usually neglected, even though a mechanical failure in various soils appears to be dependent on their thermal state. Temperature-dependent behaviours in soils have been documented in several laboratory experiments and field studies. I plan to use for the first time a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) soil model based on the theory of hypoplasticity to better quantify the effects of climate patterns on slope stability. By this model, implemented in an in-house code, I expect to be able to reproduce complex hydro-mechanical responses caused by changes of temperature, including effects on water pressures, water retention, and swelling/shrinkage. I will perform short- and long-term parametric analyses under climate scenarios, to compare the direct role of temperature with that of other forcings. In this way, I expect to quantify how much local warming/cooling and altered patterns of temperature can control some types of landslides, and consequently affect current landslide hazard assessments. I plan to investigate an actual case study as well, to verify the model performance under complex boundary conditions, and demonstrate its applicability to practical slope-scale problems. Finally, I will conceptualise an upscaled model, to unlock the possibility of regional assessments. This project is in line with the EU strategy on adaptation to climate change as well as with the Sendai Framework of the UNDRR because, by improving the knowledge on the behaviour of soil slopes under climate forcing, it will offer physically-based tools for hazard assessment that could be integrated into national and European risk management systems.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

UNIVERZITA KARLOVA · Praha 1КоординаторЧехия