TUMLA · Taming the Uncertainty Monster: Lessons from Astrochemistry

Taming the Uncertainty Monster: Lessons from Astrochemistry

TUMLA studies the methods developed by astrochemists to assess the reliability of astrochemical models, aiming at computing the abundance of molecules in the interstellar medium (ISM) as a function of time, despite the fact that the models and the observations against which they must be validated are highly uncertain. These uncertainties, the multiplicity of tasks that models must fill, their different phases of development—from young models that need improvement to mature ones, ready to get confronted to observations—, the strong interdisciplinarity of the field make astrochemistry unique in terms of the challenges that astrochemists must face in evaluating the accuracy of their models. Such an exceptional epistemic situation represents a huge opportunity for philosophers both to refine their understanding of model evaluation and to contribute to developing new methods for model evaluation. Philosophers have not addressed the epistemic challenges generated by uncertainties in science other than climate science. The aim of TUMLA is to fill this gap, such as to contribute to an overall philosophical account of model evaluation based on the contemporary practice of scientists, and to provide concepts facilitating the communication of uncertainties to a general audience. Hence the three main objectives defined for TUMLA: 1. A critical analysis of sensitivity analysis in astrochemistry Astrochemists have developed innovative tools to manage uncertainties that have no counterpart in computational astrophysics, such as the identification of key chemical reactions—those that have the most important impact on the model accuracy—, through sensitivity analysis (SA). The fellow will analyze the conceptual foundations of this methodology and critically assess its application to each stage of the development of the models . 2. Interdisciplinary facilitation The fellow’s aim is to use her background in philosophy, her interdisciplinary training in astrophysics and cosmology, as well as her experience of field work in astronomy, to facilitate and enhance an effective interdisciplinary collaboration between the experimentalists, modelers and theoreticians working in astrochemistry at the IPR. 3. A philosophical account of model evaluation that respects the diversity of roles played by models, adapts the evaluation accordingly and makes justice to the sophistication of the astrochemists’ methods.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз