NETOPT · Modeling and forecasting supply networks using functional time series and mathematical programming

Modeling and forecasting supply networks using functional time series and mathematical programming

As the global energy landscape evolves in response to rising demands and geopolitical uncertainties, the need for reliable forecasting models becomes increasingly critical. In Europe, where natural gas is a cornerstone of the energy supply, accurately predicting supply and demand dynamics across an extensive pipeline network is essential for economic prosperity and environmental sustainability. This project aims to develop a large-scale functional network time series model that incorporates balance constraints, contributing to a more efficient and environmentally friendly energy distribution system aligned with the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (ESETP). The motivation behind this initiative stems from real-life energy forecasting challenges that require enhanced efficiency and sustainability. Transmission system operators (TSOs) face the pressing need to effectively plan for energy supply and demand balances. However, current forecasting methods often struggle to capture the complexities of dynamic energy networks. Additionally, classical continuous optimization methods can be computationally expensive, complicating the task of estimating to optimal solutions. To tackle these issues, we build a large-scale functional network time series model with balance constraints that employs a mathematical programming approach, enhancing the connection between statistical learning and operational research techniques. This dynamic model enables TSOs to interpret the underlying dynamics of the network while effectively maintaining the balance between supply and demand. This approach allows for better resource allocation and risk management, enabling TSOs to respond proactively to potential disruptions in the energy network. The methodologies developed here can also be adapted for other large-scale networks, including water and renewable energy systems, further promoting sustainability and efficiency. Ultimately, this initiative promises to enhance the stability of the European energy market, benefiting individual countries and the broader energy community. By fostering a more stable and secure energy future, the project aligns with strategic goals of energy security and sustainability at both national and regional levels.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз