LEMMA · Landslide and avalanchE Mechanics with Multiphysical datA

Landslide and avalanchE Mechanics with Multiphysical datA

The context of project LEMMA is the increase in large mass movements (rockfalls, landslides and avalanches) in alpine regions that is predicted to occur due to climate change. Predicting these phenomena is difficult, because it requires models with resolution at very fine scales (millimetric) that must also operate at very large scales (kilometric). Further, the mechanical, thermal and hydrological aspects of these models must all be taken into account in order to accurately model the melting of permafrost, the underlying process that triggers these large movements. In order to address these challenges, project LEMMA proposes developments in the modelling of fractures and granular flows, as well as the numerical implementation of these models, in order to obtain a better understanding of the underlying processes. By obtaining these more refined models, large scale implementations can be envisioned using advanced numerical techniques, that will enable a comparison of the model predictions with reality at certain well-instrumented sites located in the Alps. These predictions are very challenging, not only due to the previously mentioned changes of scale, but also the large displacements and distortions of the material involved, that may travel kilometres down and alpine valley. Further, using these advanced numerical techniques, predictions can be made that describe the increased risk of large mass movements in certain localities as the climate changes, and enable governments and communities to make better-informed decisions about where, what and whether to build to protect themselves from these risks. The project has three objectives: 1. The development of thermo-hydro-mechanical models for cracks and granular flows that are specialised to the task of predicting melting and phase changes in permafrost, 2. The development of an advanced "data-driven mechanics" numerical solver that takes the output of the models and renders predictions in a numerically efficient manner, and 3. Implement the data-driven mechanics solver in the material point method, allowing predictions of large mass movements that can experience kilometres of displacement from their point of origin to their stopping point. The expected impact of these objectives is that the geomechanics community, the intersection between geologists and engineers, will have the necessary tools available to make concrete predictions about alpine gravitational risks linked to climate change. Armed with these tools, scientists will be able to provide accurate and timely advice to local, regional and national governments, as well as the affected citizenry, about these risks, as well as the necessary precautions to mitigate them and ensure continued safe habitation of the Alps.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз