HEИндивидуална стипендия2022–2024

DeCaGloPreCEs · Decadal to multi-deCadal Global Predictions of Compound Events

„Хоризонт Европа“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2022-11-01 → 2024-10-31
Финансиране от ЕС: 165 313 €
Участници: 2
Схема: HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Глобалните прогнози за екстремни климатични явления, като едновременни горещини и суша, се анализират чрез модерни модели. По-доброто разбиране на тези процеси помага за подготовка и намаляване на вредите върху здравето, инфраструктурата и земеделието.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

Decadal to multi-deCadal Global Predictions of Compound Events

Climate extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, and their compounded combinations, pose significant threats to socio-economic systems globally. These events disrupt agriculture, water resources, public health, and infrastructure, often leading to catastrophic consequences for communities and economies. Under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, such extreme events are projected to become not only more frequent but also more intense. This escalation underscores the urgent need to improve our ability to predict these occurrences through skillful and reliable climate predictions. By enhancing our understanding and forecasting capabilities, we can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of these extremes. This project is designed with the primary aim of addressing critical gaps in our predictive understanding of hot, dry, and compound hot-dry extremes. Specifically, it seeks to assess the prediction skill of these events by analyzing the role of natural climate variability on regional and global scales. Another central objective of the project is to provide robust future projections of how heatwaves, droughts, and their combined occurrences are likely to evolve under various climate change scenarios. Using state-of-the-art climate models and observational datasets, the project will quantify expected changes in the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of these events. This information is vital for policymakers and stakeholders, enabling them to make informed decisions about adaptation and mitigation strategies. In addition to these predictive and projection-focused goals, the project aims to delve deeper into the physical mechanisms that underpin the sources of predictability for these events. By identifying and quantifying the key drivers—such as teleconnections—the project will enhance our understanding of the complex systems that govern regional hot and dry extremes. Understanding these processes is crucial for refining climate models and improving their predictive capabilities. In conclusion, this project is a comprehensive effort to enhance the predictability, understanding, and management of hot, dry, and compound hot-dry extremes. By focusing on natural climate variability, future projections, and physical mechanisms, it seeks to provide a strong foundation for mitigating the growing risks associated with these climate extremes in a warming world.

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

Compound events (CEs) can pose significant threats to societies, economies and ecosystems around the world, especially when amplified by anthropogenic climate change (ACC). There is therefore a strong need for skillful, reliable and actionable predictions of how CEs are expected to change in the next decades, to support governments and stakeholders in implementing robust adaptation strategies. In this project, we will develop a method to improve near-term projections of CEs at the global scale, taking into account their response to both climate variability and long-term warming, and develop a sound physical mechanism understanding of their meteorological drivers. First, we will constrain climate projections with decadal climate predictions, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, with a novel method to reduce the uncertainty and increase accuracy of ACC predictions up to 30 years. Then, we will apply an innovative method grounded in dynamical systems theory for quantifying CEs and link them to physical extremes in the global regions where the prediction of events shows high skill. We will specifically focus on temperature-(low) precipitation as related to summer heatwaves and precipitation-wind as a proxy for storms. The analysis will elucidate what drives CEs in the context of global warming and climate variability, to what extent they can be predicted on decadal to multi-decadal time scales, and how their frequency, intensity and persistence is expected to change in the future. We will furthermore explore the atmospheric drivers of the CEs, to elucidate specific physical mechanisms at the origin of the events. The outcomes of the project will be significant for the scientific community, since they will improve the understanding of how CEs respond to ACC and climate variability, and relevant for governments and stakeholders aiming to reduce losses from high-impact weather events, benefiting societies and economies around the world.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACION · BARCELONAКоординаторИспания
FREIE UNIVERSITAET BERLIN · BerlinГермания