HEИндивидуална стипендия2024–2025

EPIC · ExPloring the ecohydrological Impacts of a changing Cryosphere in the Peruvian Andes

„Хоризонт Европа“ — Действия „Мария Склодовска-Кюри“

Период: 2024-01-01 → 2025-12-31
Финансиране от ЕС: 183 601 €
Участници: 1
Схема: HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Влиянието на топенето на ледниците в Перу върху водните ресурси се анализира чрез нови модели, включващи растежа на растителността. Това помага да се разбере как промените в климата и екосистемите ще засегнат водоснабдяването на хората и природата.

Този кратък обзор е генериран от изкуствен интелект

Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.

Резултати накратко

EPIC - ExPloring the ecohydrological Impacts of a changing Cryosphere in the Peruvian Andes

The runoff from the glaciers of the Peruvian Andes is vital to the population, economy and ecosystems downstream. Glaciers act as crucial buffers to variations in water supply, with their importance to downstream users growing in the dry season and during droughts. Water security and ecosystem health are threatened by glacier recession. Runoff from the Rio Santa catchment is in decline in response to glacier recession with predicted warming likely to be dramatic. Furthermore, deglaciation has led to the exposure of barren land and vegetation colonisation. Idealised modelling suggests that the additional evapotranspiration associated with vegetation succession would act to further reduce runoff in catchments where glacier runoff has already peaked. However, previous modelling schemes have yet to provide a full picture of the past and future changes in glaciers and the resulting impact on water supplies. Work incorporating vegetation change also assumed a direct relationship between vegetation biomass and evapotranspiration, neglecting the fundamental control of energy and water availability on evapotranspiration rates. It is thus vital to move to holistic models that can capture the changing glaciers and snow conditions in realistic ways, and also include the hydrological impact of vegetation in the assessment of future catchment runoff. These new assessments have the potential to change our understanding of how high mountain catchments will respond to warming. Our aim is to provide a new understanding of the possible futures of the hydrology of the Cordillera Blanca, combining changes in climate, glaciers and ecosystems, and disentangling their interactions. We will elucidate the controls on past glacier and ecosystem change, focusing on these research questions: What are the main drivers of the changes in glacier energy and mass balance? What is the overall impact of vegetation on the present catchment water balance? Then we will look to the future, to determine the controls on projected runoff, to answer: Are glaciers close to a tipping point of more rapid change, and what processes control this? Will future vegetation changes exacerbate or mitigate the runoff reduction caused by glacier recession?

Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз

Цел на проекта

Glacier runoff is vital for the downstream populations and ecosystems of the Peruvian Andes. However previous predictions of future runoff have failed to take account of the complexity of the glacier surface energy balance nor of future vegetation succession. Our project aims to provide a new, interdisciplinary understanding of the possible futures of the hydrology of the Cordillera Blanca, combining changes in climate, glaciers, hydrology and ecosystems, and disentangling their interactions. We will use the advanced ecohydrological model Tethys-Chloris, which takes a physically-based approach to representing glacier and catchment processes. We will determine both the key drivers of Peruvian glacier mass balance and the role of vegetation in altering the catchment water balance. Through ‘big-data’ remote sensing approaches we will identify the past changes in land cover and wetland area and how they have coincided with glacier recession. We will then assess the future of the region’s hydrology, including the changing climate, glacier evolution and scenarios of vegetation succession, to provide a holistic view of the controls on projected catchment runoff. The proposed fellow has a strong background in the glacier surface energy balance, remote sensing and glacier hydrology, but she will diversify her knowledge to encapsulate catchment modelling, ecological understanding and the use of large geospatial data archives. She will be supported by Dr Francesca Pellicciotti who is a world-class scientist specialising in the use of physically-based approaches to modelling high mountain catchments. This project will therefore not only provide unique insights into the future hydrology of the Peruvian Andes but will also provide a springboard for the fellow to become a truly interdisciplinary researcher working at the interface between glaciology, ecology and catchment hydrology.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AUSTRIA · KlosterneuburgКоординаторАвстрия