UPDRAFT · Understanding and PreDicting the Rapid development of storms: A new ForecasTing framework

Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.

Накратко на български

Цел на проекта

Developments in numerical weather forecasting have been of great benefit to many sectors of society. However, state-of-the-art weather forecasting and climate models still struggle to predict the onset and development of convective storms over land. Such storms are associated with many destructive weather events including floods, hail, and lightning, and thus, any improvement in addressing these events remains keenly sought after. UPDRAFT will develop a new method for the representation of convective storm clouds in forecasting models, building a completely new theoretical framework that can overcome many of the problems with the current modelling approach. Recent studies by the ER have shown that some key physical mechanisms responsible for the initiation of convective storms are neglected by current models, which might explain the large biases associated with the prediction of these storms. In the new model to be developed during the fellowship, these missing mechanisms will be represented in a more physically-based picture for the development of convective clouds. The main objective of the project is to produce concrete evidence that the new framework can lead to much-improved forecasts of storms. Besides the immediate potential impact for weather prediction, the outcome of the fellowship will also help in improving our understanding of storms and their response to climate change. Convective clouds play an important role in the Earths radiative and hydrological budgets, so the project might help in improving climate models as well, supporting decision-making on adapting to climate change and mitigating the risks associated with many severe weather events.

Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).

Участници

• THE UNIVERSITY OF READING · ReadingКоординаторОбединеното кралство

Връзки

• Виж в CORDIS
• DOI: 10.3030/101201579