Public debt, default risk and the European monetary union
4РП — Обучение и мобилност на изследователи
- Период
- 1997-02-01 → 1999-01-31
- Финансиране от ЕС
- —
- Участници
- 2
- Схема
- RGI
Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите. За проекти отпреди 2014 г. CORDIS не винаги дава точни координати. Тези точки са на ниво град или държава.
Накратко на български
Държавният дълг и рискът от неговото неплащане се анализират при преминаването към европейската валутна зона, където инфлацията вече не може да се използва за намаляване на задълженията. Това помага на банковия сектор да оцени рисковете при притежанието на държавни облигации.
Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.
Цел на проекта
Research objectives and content The purpose of the research is to investigate the possibility of defaulting on public debt. The issue is particularly relevant for those countries which have to deal with a very large public debt and, at the same time, are aiming to join EMU. I intend to analyse how the picture changes when one moves from a situation in which both inflation and default are available instruments of debt reduction to a situation in which inflation is no longer available. To this end, I will take a 'political economy' approach in which an optimising policymaker has to finance a stochastic flow of public spending. The introduction of such a source of uncertainty in the government budget constraint allows me to determine default probability endogenously. A calibration exercise of the theoretical model, involving European countries, is also planned. Finally the theoretical work will be supported by investigation of the nature of the risk premia incorporated in government bonds. The aim is to study the empirical relationship between risk premia and fiscal variables. Financial swap data will be used to measure the size of default risk on government bonds Training content (objective, benefit and expected impact) The opportunity of a PhD programme at the University of Warwick is a valuable experience of research work, giving me training dealing with theoretical and empirical issues and using advanced research techniques. I consider this experience a key step in acquiring the skills required for a future research career. Links with industry / industrial relevance (22) The research is of great relevance for the banking industry, in particular when financial institutions hold a significant amount of government debt in their portfolios.
Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).
Участници
- UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK · COVENTRYКоординаторОбединеното кралство
- Not availableНиво градИталия
Връзки
Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз