The Optimal Timing of abandoning a Stabilisation Programme
4РП — Обучение и мобилност на изследователи
- Период
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- Финансиране от ЕС
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- Участници
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- Схема
- RGI
Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.
Накратко на български
Оптималният момент за прекратяване на програмите за икономическа стабилизация се определя чрез изчисляване на разходите и ползите от тях. Това помага да се разбере кога краткосрочните ползи от надценената валута стават вредни и как се предвиждат спекулативните атаки.
Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.
Цел на проекта
Research objectives and contentThe objective of this research project is to find criterion for the optimal timing of abandoning a stabilisation programme. For this cost and benefit functions have to be constructed that measure the costs and benefits from a stabilisation programme. First, the effects of overvaluation have to be specified. On the one hand, I want to show, that contrary to current perception overvaluation can have positive effects in the short run, whereas in the long run the negative effects will outweigh this positive effect. The time horizon when the positive effects are outweighed by the negative effects have to be estimated in an econometric approach as a second step. Using these results I want to construct a cost and a benefit function and estimate them.From this a rule for: the optimal timing of abandoning a stabilisation programme can be derived. From modern real options theory the hesitation of the policymakers to abandon the stabilisation programme can be rationalised. Combining this with the strategic behaviour of the speculators will give a positive theory of speculative attacks.Training content (objective, benefit and expected impact)The training content will be in the application of the theoretical and empirical tools I have acquired in my previous degree at Humboldt-Universitaet. Additionally in the first year of this programme (1997/98) I will receive further training in the compulsory courses in the PhD programme. LBS also has people and institutes that conduct research in related fields to my research. Andrew Scott, my supervisor, is undertaking research on the causes of speculative attacks in the EMU 1992 and recently in Far East Asia. The CIS-ME centre focuses on the transition economies in Eastern Europe and offers research seminars in that direction from which I can get an insight into the current research conducted by others -inside and outside the LBS. The Centre for Economic Forecasting does much work on the EMU in applied econometrics, which will be of invaluable help for the empirical part of my research.Links with industry / industrial relevance (22)
Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).
Участници
- London Business School · LondonКоординаторОбединеното кралство
Връзки
Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз