AVODACC · Avoiding dangerous climate change: Development and application of an anatomy of climate-related vulnerabilities to address the ultimate objective of the Framework convention on climate change
6РП — Действия „Мария Кюри“
- Период
- 2004-06-15 → 2007-06-14
- Финансиране от ЕС
- 257 169 €
- Участници
- 1
- Схема
- OIF
Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите. За проекти отпреди 2014 г. CORDIS не винаги дава точни координати. Тези точки са на ниво град или държава.
Накратко на български
Компютърни модели анализират разходите по климатичните политики и начина, по който различни фактори правят обществото уязвимо към промените в климата. Това помага за по-точна оценка на рисковете и подобрява информацията, с която разполагат международните институции при вземане на решения.
Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.
Резултати накратко
Final Activity Report Summary - AVODACC (Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: Development and Application of an Anatomy of Climate-related Vulnerabilities of the Framework convention on climate change)
The main research topic of this fellowship was the model-based integrated assessment of climate change. The fellow applied multidisciplinary computer models to identify and evaluate global climate policies that constrain the risk of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system', as referred to in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. He discovered that previous model-based climate policy analyses had used inconsistent methods to determine the costs of climate protection, and that they made inappropriate assumptions about uncertainties in the climate system. The fellow identified more consistent assessment methods, which lead to improved estimates of the risk of dangerous climate change and enable a correct specification of the social costs associated with reaching different risk levels. These results significantly improve the information basis for international climate policy. The findings regarding costing methods have already influenced, for example, the widely cited Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. Another major research area was the improvement of methods for climate change vulnerability assessment. The fellow developed a conceptual framework of vulnerability to climate change that integrates the main research traditions of vulnerability assessment: natural hazards, political economy, social geography, and resilience. This work clarifies the widespread conceptual confusion in vulnerability research and facilitates the integration of these diverse research traditions in efforts to reduce the risks from global climate change. The fellow further identified criteria for selecting key vulnerabilities of climate change, which assist stakeholders in defining dangerous levels of climate change. These criteria were applied for selecting key vulnerabilities in the Working Group II contribution of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, to which the fellow contributed as author and review editor. The expertise of the fellow was requested by scientific institutions and stakeholders worldwide. The fellow gave several invited presentations (including a keynote presentation) at international conferences and other scientific meetings, he advised national governments and the European Commission on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and he contributed to the 2007 report of the United Nations' Special Expert Group on Climate Change.
Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз
Цел на проекта
The research proposed here aims at developing a conceptual model of the UNFCCC approach to preventing 'dangerous climate change' and an 'anatomy' of climate-related vulnerabilities. This anatomy will provide a framework for structuring the knowledge about potentially 'dangerous' aspects of anthropogenic climate change in a way that is explicitly targeted at the underlying decision problem.Application of this framework to selected 'key vulnerabilities' will improve the effectiveness of participative approaches addressing the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, and it will facilitate the consideration of different types of vulnerabilities in integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs). The research involves methods from systems analysis, text analysis, vulnerability research, and risk assessment.The fellow will spend the outgoing phase of his fellowship at the Centre for Environmental Science and Policy at Stanford University (USA). There he will develop the conceptual model and the anatomy of vulnerability, which will be tested on student groups. This conceptual framework will then be applied to key climate-related vulnerabilities, which is expected to involve additional stochastic model analyses with existing IAMs.During his return phase at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany), the results will be applied in ongoing European research projects that employ participatory and model-based integrated assessments of climate change. The fellowship will help to transfer and utilize knowledge from a top research centre on that topic into the European Research Area and to establish new scientific partnerships, thereby strengthening the excellence of European research.It will significantly improve the ability of the fellow to establish an independent research career in Europe. The proposed research on the science-policy interface in global climate change is also highly relevant for other explicitly stated political objectives of the Community.
Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).
Участници
- POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH E.V. · POTSDAMКоординаторНиво градГермания
Връзки
Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз