INSITE · Intra-continental Reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation using Stalagmite Isotopes and Trace Elements
7РП — „Хора“ (Действия „Мария Кюри“)
- Период
- 2008-03-03 → 2010-03-02
- Финансиране от ЕС
- 177 173 €
- Участници
- 1
- Схема
- MC-IEF
Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.
Накратко на български
Северноатлантическото колебание и влиянието му върху климата се проучват чрез анализ на сталагмити от Югозападна Полша. Това помага да се разграничат естествените промени в природата от тези, причинени от човешката дейност, и да се предвидят бъдещи климатични промени.
Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.
Резултати накратко
Intra-continental Reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation using Stalagmite Isotopes and Trace Elements
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of inter-annual atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere and a key driver of climate fluctuations (i.e., wind speed/direction, temperature, precipitation, storminess) in the North Atlantic region (1-5) (Fig.1). Characterising the currently unknown long-term behaviour of the NAO and the physical processes that control it is crucial for accurate prediction of future climate change and for distinguishing between anthropogenic and natural forcing mechanisms. The goal of the INSITE project is thus: (i) To extend the existing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index through the Holocene using stalagmite palaeoclimate proxy records from SW Poland; (ii) To distinguish between anthropogenically - and naturally-induced NAO variability; and (iii) To generate the longest, most precisely dated, highest resolution palaeoclimate record for this region of central Europe.
Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз
Цел на проекта
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the Northern Hemisphere’s dominant mode of atmospheric variation. It is the most significant driver of European climate and weather but the profound impact of NAO on society, economy, environment, and ecology cannot be assessed because we do not know how it has varied over long timescales and which factors drive its variation over both short and long timescales. Does the NAO fluctuate only in response to natural drivers or does its unprecedented shift since the 1970’s reflect anthropogenic forcing? Available instrumental, documentary and proxy-based reconstructions are too short to resolve a low-frequency NAO component. Therefore, we cannot (i) determine the cause of 0.7 – 1.0 °C warming during the past 150 years, (ii) predict the magnitude and rate of global warming as atmospheric ‘greenhouse’ gas concentrations increase, and (iii) validate hindcasting of atmosphere-ocean global climate models as a first step to their use as accurate forecasters of future NAO activity. These three issues are vital to mitigate NAO-induced climate and weather risks upon the socio-economic sustainability of Europe. Stalagmite chemistry provides an ideal test of NAO influence on European climate. Isotope and trace element variations preserve high-frequency records of past precipitation in seasonal growth lamina. Growth over many millennia also records low-frequency climate change. Recent stalagmite records from Germany and Austria suggest stalagmite climate proxies (oxygen isotope ratios) correlate strongly with solar irradiation. Our Polish site is ideal to test this hypothesis because we have shown that the NAO is the primary control of oxygen isotope ratios of precipitation in this area (Baldini et al., in review). INSITE will develop an innovative combination of stalagmite palaeoclimate proxies from this site to determine how natural and anthropogenic forcing influence high- and low-frequency NAO variation.
Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).
Участници
- UNIVERSITY OF DURHAM · DURHAMКоординаторОбединеното кралство
Връзки
Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз