MATINEE · Mathematical Interfaces for Epidemiology and Environment
7РП — „Хора“ (Действия „Мария Кюри“)
- Период
- 2009-08-20 → 2010-10-19
- Финансиране от ЕС
- 225 567 €
- Участници
- 1
- Схема
- MC-IIF
Линиите свързват координатора с партньорите.
Накратко на български
Математически модели анализират разпространението на вирусни инфекции в болници, като например ротавируси в детските отделения. Това помага да се разберат ефектите от хигиената и разпределението на пациентите, за да се ограничи предаването на болестта.
Кратко обяснение, генерирано от езиков модел по текста на CORDIS. Оригиналът е по-долу.
Резултати накратко
Mathematical Interfaces for Epidemiology and Environment
This project uses mathematical models to study and evaluate control policies for the nosocomial transmission of viral infections, particularly rotavirus in pediatric wards. A first article published in the Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Kribs-Zaleta et al., 2010) examined the effects of policies including cohorting, caregiver-patient ratio, preventive hygiene compliance, and vaccination at the level of a single ward. Another article, currently in progress, extends this framework to the level of an entire hospital, with a complex, heterogeneous landscape of infectious contacts. Figures 1 and 2 give the flow structure of the underlying single-ward and multi-ward models, respectively. Analysis of cohorting as a control measure in the first paper showed that stochastic discretization effects tend to reduce the overall mean prevalence among patients when the cohort size (or the ward size) is reduced; that is, for small cohorts, the stochastic variations present at the individual level tend to reduce the overall spread of the infection more than what is predicted by simple (homogeneous) deterministic models (see Figure 3 below). As regards healthcare worker (HCW) compliance with preventive hygiene, and the observed difficulties in maintaining improved compliance, the study found that even short-term improvement in preventive hygiene compliance following contact with symptomatic patients may significantly limit transmission as well, and remains an important control measure, especially where resources are limited. For instance, targeted short-term improvements in hygiene compliance may reduce prevalence by 1/3, 1/2 or more during a single outbreak. Finally, stochasticity may account for the high interepidemic variability in prevalence (e.g., 2% to 20%), and short-term fluctuations in admissions of community-acquired cases may not be the dominant factor in nosocomial transmission. Indeed, variations in discharge and recovery rates from patient to patient (and corresponding decontamination rates in HCWs) showed a nontrivial (22.8%) probability of making nosocomial transmission self-sustaining for short periods of time, extending an outbreak's duration.
Текст от CORDIS, на английски · Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз
Цел на проекта
This proposal would bring a mathematical epidemiologist from the U.S. to the University of Lyon (France) to collaborate with researchers in the Biometry and Evolutionary Biology Laboratory in research on the nosocomial transmission of rotavirus in pediatric and other hospital wards. Because of inadequate sterilization and pathogen resistance to antibiotics, healthcare workers and hospital equipment act as vectors to spread these infections from one patient to another, causing thousands of deaths each year, especially among children under five years of age. This project proposes to develop and analyze a sequence of mathematical models describing the transmission dynamics, beginning with deterministic compartmental models which describe the average spread of infections at the hospital level and progressing to stochastic and network-based models which take into account individual variations in transmission within small populations such as wards, and the structure of infectious contacts that connects multiple wards through workers and equipment moving from one ward to another. The project also includes two methodological components: one which will compare epidemiological indices of infection transmission such as the basic reproductive number, to see which best capture the effects of contact structures (how potential infection events occur), and another which applies uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in order to derive a measure of confidence in the results. This interdisciplinary collaboration, broad both in the fields of expertise from which it draws and in the spectrum of modeling approaches it uses, aims to play an important role in the context of public health: by putting predictive tools at the disposal of the community of physicians, it aligns with the public health strategy of the European Community in improving the capability to respond to significant public health threats.
Оригинален текст от CORDIS (на английски).
Участници
- UNIVERSITE LYON 1 CLAUDE BERNARD · Villeurbanne CedexКоординаторФранция
Връзки
Данни: CORDIS, © Европейски съюз